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December 31, 2007

Don't Do It, Mr. Mayor

Glenn Greenwald has some things to say about Mayor Bloomberg:

...this is just exactly what our country desperately needs, what it is missing most -- a neoconservative, combat-avoiding, Bush-supporting, Middle-East-warmonger who sees U.S. and Israeli interests as indistinguishable and inextricably linked, with a fetish for ever-increasing government control and surveillance, and a background as a Wall St. billionaire. We just haven't had enough of those in our political culture. Our political system, more than anything, is missing the influence of people like that. That's why it's broken: not enough of those.

My view is more basic:

1) A third party candidate can't win, no matter how much money is spent. Even if he were to beat the odds and win more popular votes than Perot in 1992, the electoral college is specifically designed to crush third parties.

2) Unlike Perot who ran as a populist/conservative and took votes away from President Bush 41, the perception of Mayor Bloomberg, despite what Greenwald is saying, is that he leans more progressive. Therefore, he would obviously take more votes away from the Democratic candidate than he would the GOP candidate. That means greater odds for a President McCain or President Giuliani or President Romney Unit.

Posted By Bob Cesca | December 31, 2007 10:38 AM | DIGG THIS

Comments

I had no idea that the electoral college doomed third-parties. If that's the case it's a significant factor that needs to be broadcast to anxious Democrats.

Posted by: NorCalNative [TypeKey Profile Page] at December 31, 2007 02:34 PM

Yeah, the electors from each state are Republicans and Democrats -- and they're committed to casting their vote in the electoral college for the candidate of their party.

If they don't support the party's candidate, they're known as "Faithless Electors". How bad is it to be a faithless elector? 24 states have laws against voting against the party candidate while only 2 states (Maine and Nebraska) can split their electoral votes between the two major party candidates.

Here in Pennsylvania, we have 21 electoral votes -- 21 Republican electors and 21 Democratic electors. The law doesn't allow for 21 'Third Party Candidate X' electors. So if Bloomberg were to somehow win a plurality of the popular vote here, his campaign would need to somehow convince 21 of the electors from one of the parties to cast their elector votes for him -- and against the wishes of their party bosses. I can't even fathom how something like this might happen.

This isn't impossible -- it's just really, really, really difficult. To win, Bloomberg would need to run such an overpowering and monumental campaign as to alter two-party control as well as the law in 24 states.

--

ALSO... I'd like to add that Bloomberg and his people are smart enough to know this. The only reason for Bloomberg to spend a billion dollars of his own money is for, 1) the ego-stroking that goes with the title "presidential candidate"; and 2) to prevent *someone else* from winning. In other words, Bloomberg can't win -- but he can keep Senator Clinton from winning.....

Posted by: Bob_Cesca [TypeKey Profile Page] at January 1, 2008 10:38 AM

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