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February 10, 2008
About that delegate count
Are you as sick of I am at hearing people on the toob and in the supermarket checkout that even though Obama is winning, he's really losing? You know, because of those superdelegates.
Well, Real Clear Politics runs the numbers, and here's the headline:
Hillary's ahead by only 3 delegates. And that INCLUDES Super Delegates.
Obama has 1120. Clinton has 1123.
In other words, by Wednesday, nobody's going to be saying Clinton is winning.
Today, Maine has 34 delegates to allocate. I predict it's almost even, but that Obama wins slightly: 17 - 15. Virginia, Maryland, DC - 238 delegates at stake. Obama will sweep these votes, and clean up with delegates (I predict a 2 to 1 victory, with Obama getting 170 to Clinton's 68), pushing him ahead even counting on the superdelegates who swore allegiance to Hillary over a year ago - and many of whom, as Bob has been saying, will switch allegiance to the frontrunner when that becomes more clear.
Democrats Abroad vote that day, too, 7 delegates at stake, I have no clue.
Then Wisconsin (y'know, the state next to Illinois) and Hawaii (where Obama used to reside) will render up 121 delegates. Again, Obama will win, and I think he'll win something like, say, 71 to 50.
And then comes Texas and Ohio. Obama is getting major newspaper endorsements in both states (Rhode Island and Vermont vote the same day, I predict Clinton wins RI, Obama wins VT). But about TX and OH, where 389 delgates are at stake...
As I posted below, Hispanics in Texas are realizing they have a bit more in common with Obama than Clinton. I don't expect Hillary to have anything like a deciding win in either place - even if the election were held today. But after a month of Obama garnering victory after victory, running his stellar ads and doing his thing face-to-face with arena crowds...I just don't see how he doesn't lock this thing up around midnight on March 4.
And hey, that's about when Howard Dean said he thought things would be figured out...how about that?
Posted By JumpyPants | February 10, 2008 02:20 PM | DIGG ME!
Comments
I think part of her overall strategy is to win this thing by courting the superdelegates and trying like hell to get the Florida and Michigan delegations seated at the convention. It's pretty obvious by now that the popular vote is not going to swing her way. By sweet talking the supers, she's also saying that she's not really interested in the will of the people, just in becoming the party's nominee.
It looks like they are going to start with the procedural dirty-dirty behind the scenes while campaigning on the notion that she's "winning" this because she's the best choice for the job.
Posted by: Nanotyrannus ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.bobcesca.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at February 10, 2008 04:54 PM
For what it's worth, Democrats Abroad and our seven delegates broke for Obama by what appeared to be a 3.5-1 margin in London. If that's representative of primary voters in other countries (and it seems likely, as most Americans who live abroad are highly concerned with what our choice in a President says about us to other countries, and most people aren't terribly keen on the world's leading Democracy being led by 24+ years of Bushes and Clintons), then I would suspect that you can pencil that one in for Obama.
--d
Posted by: dansolomon at February 10, 2008 05:33 PM
