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August 22, 2008
Predictions
Okay, so we might as well.
I predict Senator Hillary Clinton. And it might shock you to learn that I think she would be a pretty strong choice given the field of names.
So let's go around the horn. Whaddaya say?
UPDATE: Here's another might-as-well prediction. If it's Senator Clinton, Senator Obama would get an immediate 8-point bump in the polls.
UPDATE THE SECOND: There goes my prediction.
Filed under: Barack Obama || Hillary Clinton || Polls
Posted By Bob Cesca | August 22, 2008 10:29 AM
Comments
I say Biden.
I'm hoping for Clark.
Or, Powell.
But I would be ok with Clinton - and it would make a compelling story.
Actually - when I learned that Bill was speaking on VP night, I concluded that Hillary had the nod. But we'll see.
QT
Posted by: QueenTiye
at August 22, 2008 10:53 AM
How about when? After 12 noon I suppose, for the left coast, but when? Every time I get a text today, I jump three feet.
My nickel says either Hillary (still not sure about the wisdom) or Biden. The irrational part of me is still screaming Clark, though.
Posted by: trustno1
at August 22, 2008 10:54 AM
Are there any rules that state a term-limited President can't be a VP?
If Senator Clinton gets it, I'd be afraid. Senator McCain could just run her ads that she ran while campaigning against Senator Obama.
Posted by: Alaska
at August 22, 2008 10:57 AM
If Obama believes that is what he needs to do then that is what he needs to do. I would never second guess him. But I can't imagine I will ever like her. I would feel sorry for him to have to continue to deal with the Clintons and their soap opera.
Posted by: JDS
at August 22, 2008 11:00 AM
Kaine. Maybe not the best choice, but I'm trying to think the way campaigns think. If Obama's campaign TRULY is different though, we may all be surprised today.....
Posted by: JimmyJames
at August 22, 2008 11:16 AM
I say Donald Trump. We need some real estate mogul to help all certain poor senators keep track of how many houses they own.
Posted by: IntoxiNation
at August 22, 2008 11:31 AM
I'm really hoping against hope for Wesley Clark. But I'd hope for Hillary before Kaine, Biden, or Bayh.
Posted by: napangel
at August 22, 2008 11:39 AM
I say Biden or Rep. Chet Edwards, Texas as a long shot.
Posted by: midad
at August 22, 2008 12:12 PM
I personally think it would be a big mistake and show a lack of imagination. After all these months to give the nomination to the squeaky wheel would just seem to be pandering to a certain segment of the Democratic base.
Posted by: Hayduke
at August 22, 2008 12:54 PM
I was a huge Clinton fanboy for many, many years. I voted for Obama in the CA primaries because I really felt the media and the right wing are soooo obsessed with the Clintons, and I felt Obama would give the Dems a chance to really turn the page. Just the presence of the Clintons puts our monolithic media in a tizzy. I also felt, and still feel, that Obama gives us a chance for a landslide/mandate, whereas the Clintons would still make it a 50.1% country (due to the fact that te right wing is so galvanized by them in the mix)--Obama is simply more of a game changer, and I think our country desperately needs that. I also still think the new voters are underrepresented in the polls.
Obama was a breath of fresh air, and his ideas and policies and judgment are virtually identical to HRC's. I am now of mixed feelings about the Clintons. The dirty little secret is that she LOST the nomination in February, but stayed in waiting for a piano to fall from the sky. As a result, she injected a ton of negative Obama narratives for the media and the right wing to chew on--and now use as a distraction form the REAL issues. Her campaign has also "assigned" blame to Obama for her loss, rather than her campaign, or more importantly, the BBQ media (who so clearly hate the Clintons and always have)--
That famous NBC debate (that SNL later mocked) was a good exmaple of her unfair treatment. Nevertheless, she behaved horribly after it was CLEAR that she had lost the nomination. Had she bowed out in Feb--we would have our dream ticket now.
I agree with Bob that Clinton would give Obama a big bump, but it would soon come back down--and you can bet the MSM is lying in wait for anything Bill Clinton related--they can't help themselves. I think her presence on the ticket would help the media make it even more of a would be even MORE of referendum on the Dem ticket, "do we want the Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton, etc"-- "does the country want Bill and Hil back in the WH?" "OMG, he blew his nose" "he said it was sunny, when it was really partly cloudy" blah blah blah
So, my choice (and prediction)...I am very much for Biden--he has a "regular" appeal that many Americans relate to--I also think he will be dazzling in the debate--one zinger is all we need, and he is MORE than capable. His BS radar and no nonsense working class demeanor will go over very well. If HRC gets the nom, which I highly doubt, I will still be excited, but on balance, I am hoping its Biden--he also grew up in Scranton which I believe will go a long way towards sealing the deal in PA. Also, I think he matches up really well against Romney (who I really hope gets it--he is such a phoney, and comes across as such--and the media will go after him--plus, there is NO chemistry between he and McCain--it's the political equivalent of Arnold and Danny Devito) or the unknown Pawlenty. Biden v. Romney is a blowout IMO. If the Clinton supporters won't support Obama, then so be it--kiss Roe v Wade goodbye, and every single issue you care about. The fact is, she won;t be the nom because of her actions in the last 3 months of the primary--pure and simple--if they want to blame anyone, blame her.
Posted by: JG
at August 22, 2008 12:55 PM
I'm not sure why anybody gives that politico.com story any credence.
First of all, it's politico.com.
Secondly, If Obama was picking HRC, do you really think he needs to vet her in August after the oppo research he did in Feb-June?
Please.
--
That said, I don't want it to be her, and I hope they're right.
Posted by: Mr Furious
at August 22, 2008 2:38 PM
I think it has to be a woman: Sebelius or Caroline Kennedy. Maybe having CK lead his VP choice was just a smokescreen, a not-so-subtle riposte to Dick Cheney.
Posted by: FrictionSoul
at August 22, 2008 2:47 PM
I want it to be Biden, or Sebelius.
I don't think it's going to be HRC. Bill wouldn't have been in such a petulant, shitty mood for the past few months if he knew she was in the mix. He would have at least kept his mouth shut, and she would've come out swinging in favor of the O.
Do we want to start some kind of pool? Maybe the losers have to write Haiku to celebrate the Chosen VP?
Posted by: Nanotyrannus
at August 22, 2008 3:09 PM
The suspense today is really sort-of fun!
Perhaps there are only moments to go...I'm still hoping for Janet Napolitano.
Posted by: blue november
at August 22, 2008 4:53 PM
I had a dream that the announcement came and it was Sebelius. I am not rooting for her, but mention it in case that was a psychic moment...
QT
Posted by: QueenTiye
at August 22, 2008 5:46 PM
I'm sorry but I'm a female and feel that Hilary and Bill's tactics was a turned off and game changer. She lost because she was busy sitting on the smugness of her name and thought that alone would get her through. She was ill prepared, could not make a real decision and it showed.
By time she started shouting sexism was the cause it was way too late and hard to believe. Yes, I am fully aware that in our country treatment between male and female is not the same; but, she was trying to have it both ways. On the one hand she wanted to be treated equal but on the other hands when things were not going her way she resorted to her sex with tears and complaining.
And this latest flap, having a roll call at the convention has been a door closer for me and has turned me off completely. Neither Hilary or Bill have acted as if they do anything for the democratic party more than making calculating moves that only serve the purpose of helping them obtain power for themselves.
I had loved Bill when he was president (and even after his gaffes still do) and turned a blind eye towards some of his more shady dealings. But the current condition our country is in requires us to really think about having a fresh start. Fresh is not a word I associate with either Clinton (unless our talking about Chelsea). You can not get any fresher than Obama and Hilary does not fit the scheme of change.
Nor do I like the fact that Hilary believe she can tell us 18 million which way to vote (obviously I am not a PUMA and do not need another women to prove I have strength). I find most of her ardent fans to be psychos and I also believe it is her rhetoric that caused the sorry state of having PUMAs anyway. She knew it was mathematically impossible for her to win and she just kept on going. She was forever telling her fans that they could win when she knew she could not, she gave them false hope and then when she finally did lose she set the stage for more ardent fans to believe some mysterious (or man made) conspiracy caused her fall.
Nope, I would be very hard press to go for an Obama-Clinton ticket. There are just too many republicans that would be happy if she was chosen and you got to wonder why? I don't think she has the pull all her fans has been harping about. But I do know that she has a lot of baggage that would be food from the heavens for the republicans.
Posted by: chamay0
at August 22, 2008 7:11 PM
I think Sebelius would make most sense. First, a governor would help "balance" the ticket, careerism wise. Second, she has no baggage I'm aware of. Third, I think most disgruntled feminists would get over Hillary a lot quicker than anyone thinks with Sebelius on the ticket. And fourth, I think selecting Sebelius would give "moderate, undecided voters" (you know: morons) a subliminal point of reference along the lines of "only one party has a person with white hair on the ticket who isn't a morally, psychiatrically compromised former war hero blinded by opportunism and a voracious sense of self-entitlement, and it ain't the Republicans."
Posted by: StuporMundi
at August 22, 2008 7:17 PM
It wouldn't surprise me if he actually did go with Hillary. Obama knows he needs a power ticket. I was against the idea originally, but I'm actually warming up to it. Like Rocky said of Adrian: "I have gaps, she has gaps" ... they fill in each other's gaps. The question is: Can she control her ego to benefit the party?
Posted by: Readytohurl
at August 22, 2008 7:50 PM
Readytohurl: No, she can't control her ego to benefit the party. The primaries showed that she wanted to control the party to benefit her ego. I would be astonished if a man as smart and savvy as Obama even gave a first thought to selecting Hillary. She based her campaign against him on ego fulfillment, sense of self-entitlement, and a truckoad of disrespect. She damaged his chances in the general by establishing talking points for Obama's eventual GOP adversary. Why would Obama want Hillary Clinton and her peckerwood husband lurking in the Executive Branch for 4 or 8 years, distracting him and undermining his agenda?
Posted by: StuporMundi
at August 22, 2008 8:16 PM
Well, it'd certainly underscore why Bill C. has been such a pr*ck these days of supposed party unity. If they thought she was in the running, why would they have been so distant in supporting him. No, my guess is that they've known all along that she wouldn't get the nod. Not after that primary. Basically, she and Bill are Republicans, as far as I can tell...
Posted by: Groobiecat
at August 22, 2008 10:21 PM
StuporMundi said:I think Sebelius would make most sense...I think most disgruntled feminists would get over Hillary a lot quicker than anyone thinks with Sebelius on the ticket.
And yet, I've heard many ardent Hillary supporters say it would be a further insult if Obama chose a woman other than Hillary. FOr some of these people it's either Hillary or nothing when it comes to choosing a woman as a running mate. And for the life of me, I can't understand that reasoning.
Even though I didn't think of him as a first choice, very early on I thought Biden would be a good pick specifically because he's a tell-it-like-it is speaker and he'll call out the bullshitters when he hears them. I'll be excited to watch the VP debate if it's Biden.
Posted by: Broadway Carl
at August 22, 2008 10:34 PM
Groobiecat: totally agree. I've seen no difference between Clinton and a "moderate" Republican since 1988. I can't think of one thing that happened during the Clinton administration that wouldn't have happened under a Republican one. (Well, prosperity, maybe.)
Posted by: StuporMundi
at August 22, 2008 10:48 PM
They announced it: Biden.
Posted by: MG
at August 22, 2008 11:22 PM
Oh, fine! Joe "The Plagiarist" Biden. And if MG is right, then where the fuck is my Obama email?!?
Posted by: StuporMundi
at August 22, 2008 11:32 PM
Posted by: StuporMundi at August 22, 2008 11:32 PM
Sorry, man.. Someone misreported it to me. They sent a Secret Service unit to Biden's house. They didn't techincally announce it. It makes sense to send security to someone's house BEFORE you announce that he is your running mate.
Posted by: MG
at August 22, 2008 11:56 PM
I'm sorry--like I said, I used to be a huge fan of both Clintons, but they have treated Obama with nothing but disrespect since February. Obama has bent over backwards trying to show them their (un)due respect, and all of theor surrogates are no saying Obama should have vetted her, etc. etc. I am sure she was under consideration, but it was never going to get to vetting records (that havent already been released) or asking for Clinton library donations--the BBQ media is running away w/ this narrative--I sure hope the Clintons and their supporters don't ruin this momentous occasion.
Posted by: JG
at August 23, 2008 12:21 AM
Thanks for the update MG. Big Otis, who comments at my own blog, suggested to me that Biden is the kind of guy who might participate in a media fakeout on this. I don't know Biden well. But it would be cool. Hard to understand why Biden would want to be VP anyway. Sure, he'd be president of the senate, and he knows the place from the bottom up. Maybe he could push Harry Reid around a bit. But as Secretary of State, he could be a major player down at the Cracker Factory, along with Milhous' dad.
Posted by: StuporMundi
at August 23, 2008 12:22 AM
Pretty sure it's Biden - and I'm pretty ok with that. Happy even. I like him.
BUT - about Hillary - has anyone considered the secret meeting Barack and Hillary orchestrated right after she conceded? Did anyone consider that she didn't WANT to be VP, and made that clear? He kept her name floating out there for a little while, as a complement to her and her supporters, but I don't think she wanted the job.
I'm officially on record. Hillary for a cabinet post - probably the one that lets her control the health care agenda.
QT
Posted by: QueenTiye
at August 23, 2008 12:23 AM



