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August 13, 2008
Why Isn't Being Ahead the Same As Winning?
Posted by JumpyPants
Turn on any of the corporate, incorporated, bar-b-que-ified media, and you will get the same vibe, over and over again: John McCain's smear tactics are working! McCain has the edge! Obama can't close it! Obama's campaign in tatters! Why is Obama on vacation?! How is John Edwards alleged love child hurting the already flailing Obama campaign?! John McCain's edge is ON! John McCain is poised to win this! McCain! McCain! MUH-CAIN!
Huh.
284 to 154. Which number would you say is the winning number?
Because those are the current electoral college tally numbers, according to pollster.com, and based on a survey of all polling data.
Which number would you guess would be the one for the guy on the rise, the guy with the edge, the guy poised to win this thing? Would it SHOCK you if I told you that he was the 154 number? And that the other guy, the guy who is on vacation, the guy who's letting McCain control the election, the guy who isn't responding fast and hard and sleazy enough to the fast, hard sleaze that McCain is ejaculating out of his Viagra-ized campaign staff's collective consciousness, would it SHOCK you if that other guy, Senator Barack Obama, is the one with the 284 number?
Because, honestly, after watching a bit of the corporate media, or even reading a bunch of blog comments, those numbers do shock me.
But then I remember that there's a huge investment in John McCain winning this thing on the part of the white millionaires who tell the story we call "news." I remember that these people are liars. And the bloggers who buy into their lies are afraid that the lies are truth.
Well, the truth is, Obama is in the lead. Obama has been in the lead for months. He was in the lead before, during and after the Britney/Paris ad launched. He's still in the lead now. And if you want to know how likely it is that Sleazy McWifeDumper will win, check out this great site. It uses hard numbers and a fairly complex mathematical methodology to get at a projection. And the projection is: likelihood of Richy Mc8houses winning the election: 9.5%. Likelihood of Senator Obama taking it: 89.9%.
Oh, oh, oh yeah.
Posted By JumpyPants | August 13, 2008 10:27 PM | DIGG ME!
Comments
Oh, oh, oh yeah! Making my 'O' face (as in 'O'bama in '0'8)
Posted by: ChicagoCindy ![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://www.bobcesca.com/nav-commenters.gif)
at August 14, 2008 02:16 AM
Thanks for this, jumpypants. I've been having the same thoughts but it's nice to see it put so well and so publicly. Great analysis and, of course, 100% right, 0% wrong.
Posted by: Eclectablog at August 14, 2008 05:33 AM
Election-Projection.net is nice, but the most fascinating pollster site going right now is fivethirtyeight.com, run by Chicago's Nate Silver. This guy came up with a freakishly accurate baseball-statistics-predicting algorith called PECOTA that "enraged at least half of Chicago when it said the White Sox — 2005 champs — would post a 72–90 record. Turned out PECOTA was exactly right." He's now turned that finely-tuned predictifying machine onto politics, and it looks to be just as accurate there. (More on Silver and his work here. A fascinating guy and hopefully a freakishly accurate pollster, as he has Obama over McCain 298.2 to 239.8.
Posted by: Elvis Dingeldein at August 14, 2008 09:49 AM
The "polls" reflect Karl Rove's and Dick Cheney's numbers, and they control the folks who control the spawn-of-the-devil electronic voting machines that are mandated by federal law.
Posted by: democratic socialist at August 15, 2008 12:58 PM
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