Bachmann Out, Perry In

A new PPP poll shows that Rick Perry is essentially replacing Michele Bachmann in the race for the GOP nomination, which is entirely in line with what I expected to happen.

As TPM reported Tuesday morning, Rep. Michele Bachmann's (R-MN) time as a legitimate contender for the GOP presidential nomination could be up, as a new survey from Public Policy Polling (D) shows her the third choice of Republican voters in Iowa, a state essential to her campaign. The new horserace with the full announced GOP field shows Tex. Gov. Rick Perry at the top with 22 percent, former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney at 19 percent, Bachmann at 18, and Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) at 16 percent.

There's no way around it -- Bachmann's popularity has taken a huge hit over the last two months, as shown by the PPP numbers. In June, Bachmann enjoyed a favorable/unfavorable rating of 53 - 16. That statistic is now 47 - 35, still positive, but not particularly high considering these are GOP voters. Perry, on the other hand, has gone from relatively unknown (a 21 - 16 favorability rating in June, majority undecided) to well liked, with a 56 - 24 rating. Paul has increased his favorability rating by 11 points over that time, and Romney has dropped slightly over the last two months.

If makes perfect sense if you think about it.

Rick Perry is a male version of Michele Bachmann. Their rhetoric is interchangeable and they both go to great lengths to appeal to the low information, christian voting base.

And lets face it -- the average Republican would only vote for a woman as a last resort. The party is just as, if not more, misogynistic as it is racist. The Republican-controlled House of Representative spent most of its first 6 months in office concocting uterus legislation and trampling on gender equality.

If Bachmann fails to win Iowa after investing so much time there, her campaign is as good as dead. She cannot carry the southern states over Rick Perry and she cannot carry the northern states over Mitt Romney.

Unless placing all of your eggs in the Iowa basket and ending up with nothing to show for it is considered praise-worthy, I have no idea why Ed Rollins is so highly coveted. The campaign strategies of Michele Bachmann in 2011, and Mike Huckabee in 2007, are nearly identical, and we all know how that worked out for Huckabee.

  • http://twitter.com/bphoon Brian C

    Damn…and I was so hoping she’d wait until after the Minnesota deadline for filing for congress before she flamed out. On the other hand, maybe she’ll hang on until after then anyway, a la T-Paw.

  • http://www.facebook.com/josh.dobbin Josh Dobbin

    “And lets face it — the average Republican would only vote for a woman as a last resort. The party is just as, if not more, misogynistic as it is racist.”

    Total and complete agree.

    There’s a kind of weird Stockholm Syndrome/Dungeons-and-Dragons-GIRL-in-the-group thing (where the one girl gets special attention because she’s the exception which makes the non-girl-people feel like they’re girl people) with conservative women. Palin trades on it in a predatory, TO DIE FOR Nichole Kidman way for profit, but Bachmann’s a true believer. I don’t know if that makes her more to be pitied or despised. I’m gonna go with “despised” because I’m not a particularly forgiving person when one person’s brokenness hurts other people who aren’t broken.

    Clarence Thomas is to black as she is to vagina, when it comes to being accepted as a conservative. So long as there’s only ONE in the crowd and they do what they’re supposed to, they’re everybody’s favorite example. But, really, they’ve got a limited shelf-life for the group they’re trying so hard to be accepted by.

    • http://twitter.com/bphoon Brian C

      Clarence Thomas is to black as she is to vagina, when it comes to being accepted as a conservative.

      Fucking perfect…

  • http://www.intoxination.net intoxination

    The problem is that she is being replaced by Perry and he is a walking gaff machine, even after all his political tenure. I keep waiting for Perry to make the ultimate crazy comment that scares off the right and then those supporters will flock back to Bachmann.

    • http://www.politicalruminations.com/ nicole

      I wouldn’t count on it.

      Personally, I would like to see them both disappear. :)

    • Scopedog

      Might have to wait a little longer.

      Perry is crazy, no doubt, but so long as the MSM gives him a Bush-style ball-waxing, I don’t think we’ll see a migration to Bachmann any time soon.

      Then again, she’s just as nutty.

    • JMAshby

      Its okay for Perry to make crazy comments because hes a very serious governor from Texas.

      Watch out for fresh scrutiny of everything Bachmann says by the media while Perry gets a pass.

    • dildenusa

      Perry is just another lazy Texas frat boy like Bush 2. They both coasted through college barely passing. Bachmann is actually an intelligent woman but is probably getting bad advice from her clown husband. I agree that Perry will get a pass when it comes to mainstream press scrutiny while Bachmann will be put under the microscope.