Election 2012

Nate Silver Predicts Obama Victory. But It's Really Close.

The first November results from Nate Silver's positronic neural net.

Mr. Obama remains slightly ahead of Mr. Romney in most national polls, and he has had a somewhat clearer advantage in polling conducted at the state level. Mr. Obama would be about 80 percent likely to win an election held today, according to the model.

However, the outlook for the Nov. 6 election is much less certain, with Mr. Obama having winning odds of just over 60 percent. The forecast currently calls for Mr. Obama to win roughly 290 electoral votes, but outcomes ranging everywhere from about 160 to 390 electoral votes are plausible, given the long lead time until the election and the amount of news that could occur between now and then.

Not having Silver's algorithms at my disposal (nor could I understand them if I did), I can only give my best guess so far, and, honestly, it's too close to call. I'm suffering from a bout of pessimism this week due to how thoroughly the Republicans and their Super PACs are lying, and how well they're selling those lies -- not to mention the ongoing sabotage of the economy. It's far from over, of course, but I'm feeling doubtful. The Obama team has a lot of work to do.

  • mhr52

    Failing some change of events, Obama will slam Romney pretty well. Its 2004 in reverse. I think the GOP will make gains in the Senate, and possibly the House, however.

  • Lazarus Durden

    I’m not buying Romney has a chance. This is more of the MSM desperately trying to make a horserace. They need it to appear close so they can have the “Obama’s making a comeback!” meme in September, and then the “Oh snap! It’s neck and neck!” meme in October so everyone tunes in on election night.

    Mitt Romney is such a horrible, shittastic candidate there isn’t enough money in the world to convince enough voters he’s the their guy.

    I mean the guy comes out and says “Obama wants more firefighters and teachers! What the heck?” Yeah Mitt most people do. He’s so far out of touch I really don’t think he’ll make up that ground.

    In case anyone has any doubts:


  • mrbrink

    Mitt Romney is a fraud and his Karl Rove ads won’t win the day.

    His economic agenda is “jobs and the economy.” Not actual job creation, or the overall economy– just the phrase, “jobs and the economy!”

    That is a very thin layer of snide sloganeering bullshit protecting a vulnerable and quivering economic agenda.

    Good luck with an agenda centered around cutting your own taxes and shoveling money into the war machine, very rich man.

    • Victor_the_Crab

      They can pour all the Super PAC money into Romney’s coffers all they want and have the Lame Stream Media cheer him on. But if Mitt Romney can’t genuinly and honestly explain who he is and why he should be president – and, so far, he has failed – then he ain’t gonna be president.

  • Bob McIntosh

    I trust what Nate says; he is an ÜBER-GEEK!

  • Madam1

    I couldn’t agree with you more, Bob. While seeing this post about the always insightful Nate Silver gives me hope, I am very nervous about the massive amount of money pouring into Romney’s camp. It’s got me down this week too.