Election 2012

Farewell to the Romney Bounce

Nate Silver's most recent projection:

In a campaign loaded with awkward, weirdo gaffes, missteps and lies, I think we can safely regard Mitt Romney as a one hit wonder.

  • Nitai Kearney

    Are the two lines supposed to be exact mirror images of each other? Maybe it’s the type of numbers being run for this graph, it just seems odd to me..maybe I’m wrong.

    • Brutlyhonest

      Silver’s projection is the percentage chance of each candidate winning based on an algorithm that includes polls, but is not a single poll. The two added will equal 100 (or ridiculously close since the chance of a tie is miniscule). So, as one goes down the other goes up and that inverse relationship looks like a mirror image.

      • Nitai Kearney

        Thanks for the clarification!

      • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=663669914 Sean Richardson

        If I remember right, a tie goes to the House of Representatives and, thus, would be a win for Romney. (There’s definitely a policy in place, so a tie should count as a win for the person who would obviously win it.)

  • http://JCohenMusic.com Justin Cohen

    I disagree that Romney was a one-hit wonder. I think it’s more of a case that the president was a one-flop willy.

    Besides getting tripped up on Libya, Romney’s performance appeared to me to be pretty much the same between the two debates.

    It was the president sleep-walking through the first debate (as he admits) that made Romney appear strong.

    I think it is safe to say the president will be wide awake and effective all the way through the election.

    I expect Nate’s polls to trend in the president’s favor all the way through November 6th.

  • Madam1

    I click on Andrew Sullivan and he’s got Romney way ahead and ready to throw in the towel. I click over here and completely different story. These polls are making me nauseous. On a positive note, your poll comes from Nate Silver, the pollster dynamo, and thusly makes my day a lot better. Thanks for that, Bob.

    • http://drangedinaz.wordpress.com/ IrishGrrrl

      I kn0w what you mean….I’m going to try to limit my “poll” exposure to Silver’s work until election day.

    • D_C_Wilson

      At this point, national polls are less important than the individual swing states polls. There are very few scenarios in which Romney is likely to flip enough of those states into his column to win the the electoral college vote.

  • bphoon

    Off topic, I know, so my apologies. Please read this and pass it along:


    Paul Krugman brings many of Romney’s lies regarding his “economic plan” together and exposes what little there is behind them. In two words: “confidence fairy”.

  • bphoon

    In a campaign loaded with awkward, weirdo gaffes, missteps and lies…

    Given all that, I’m amazed that he still rates even a 30% chance of actually winning this thing.

  • DownriverDem

    Except if Mitt steals Ohio. His son’s company owns the voting machines they use.

    Very scary.

    • http://drangedinaz.wordpress.com/ IrishGrrrl

      I didn’t know his son owned it. I did read that the company had donated heavily to Mittens’ campaign though. Either way, totally inappropriate. This is one issue on which there should definitely be anti-corruption laws that says any company who makes voting machines cannot take sides, cannot donate, etc. to a politician.