Election 2012

Polling Flashback to This Week in 2004

Steve Benen with some appropriate history:

In late September, shortly before the first debate, a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll found George W. Bush leading John Kerry by eight points. A week later, shortly after their initial debate, the same pollster found the president's lead had quickly evaporated and the two were tied.

And a week after that, a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted exactly eight years ago today and tomorrow, showed Kerry inching past the incumbent president, taking a narrow lead among likely voters, 49% to 48%.

To be sure, it was just one pollster of many, but it was a major national survey showing a nine-point swing to the challenger over the course of about two weeks.

After eight years and two terms, I wonder what President Kerry will talk about in his farewell address this January? I'm sure glad he replaced Vice President Edwards before the sex scandal broke.

Oh wait.

Adding... Note to Chez, Kerry's gigantic bounce happened long before the Twitter/Cable/Hysteria Complex.

  • http://twitter.com/ChocChipsMusic The Chocolate Chips

    Very interesting… I’ve long thought that this year felt a lot like 2004 with Romney playing Kerry.

    And much like 2004 it may all come down to wins Ohio (although Obama does have a couple of other paths…)

  • chris castle

    My wife and I have decided to put the blame for Obama’s poll drop on MSNBC, specifically, Maddow and Matthews, who tore the POTUS limb from limb immediately following the event, instead of dismantling Romney for his lies, lies, lies.

    • http://twitter.com/ChocChipsMusic The Chocolate Chips

      Yup – the comparison with how the GOP handled Biden kicking Ryan’s ass is pretty amazing… the GOP didn’t turn on Ryan – they attacked Biden – if the Dems had the same strategy following the Romney/Obama debate I think the storyline would have been very different.

  • http://www.politicalruminations.com/ nicole

    This is good.

    Also….I just have to say, Bob, my thanks to both you and Ashby for doing such a smashing job throughout the run-up to the election. You have been exactly what we needed! Respect.