Election 2012

The President Leads in Early Voting


The latest Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll finds President Obama had a lead of 53% to 42% among the 17% of the surveyed registered voters who said they had already cast their vote.

In the crucial swing state of Ohio, a new Time poll finds Obama holds a two-to-one lead over Romney among those who have voted early, 60% to 30%.

Considering how everyone says the Romney campaign has the edge on the enthusiasm gap, doesn't it stand to reason that he'd be leading in early voting? I'm seriously asking. How do these numbers square with indications that the president lags behind Romney on voter enthusiasm? If Romney people were more enthusiastic, they'd be ostensibly leading right now.

My theory? The president has a stronger GOTV and ground game than Romney. If it holds, the final results should be very interesting.

  • http://twitter.com/bubblegenius Bubble Genius

    Wouldn’t it be delightful, though, if a bunch of Rs wound up being unable to vote because of their voter suppression efforts? Hoist by their own petard!

  • http://phydeauxpseaks.blogspot.com Bob Rutledge

    Ground game, shmound game. The Romnoid’s have the voting machines.

  • http://drangedinaz.wordpress.com/ IrishGrrrl

    –Deleted and moved to correct place–

  • Nanotyrannus

    I think the “Romney enthusiasm” on the right is really more “anti-Obama enthusiasm.” That horrible Hannity-Palin clip the other day wasn’t so much about how awesome Mitt Romney is as it was about enumerating the many and sundry indignities visited upon the whole universe (i.e. Sean Hannity and Sarah Palin) by that awful, unqualified bad man in the White House. With all his shuckin’ and jivin’!

    You are so right about the Obama campaign’s ground game though. That’s how they wiped the floor with all those candidates in 2008. Iowa alone in 2008 clearly showed those guys are masters at their craft.

    And Mitt Romney… He’s like Sideshow Bob now. Every time he turns around and starts to walk in another direction, he steps on that rake and slaps himself right in the face…

  • Draxiar

    While the re-election of President Obama is of utmost importance I’m also concerned about how the Congressional elections go. I’d hate for the country to have to endure another 4 years of obstruction and filibusters.

    • http://drangedinaz.wordpress.com/ IrishGrrrl

      I read somewhere (538?) that they are projecting a Dem majority of 52 in the Senate….Still not a supermajority though but we were never going to get that.

      • KanaW

        Which, unfortunately, means that every bill will be filibustered into the darkness. Again.

        Unless the Dem majority changes the rules at the beginning of session; but I don’t hold out much hope for that.

        • muselet

          I don’t know. Harry Reid is (very publicly) fed up with the Rs’ shenanigans, and he’s not someone who has done much of anything publicly in his political career. His new behavior may simply be a warning shot across the Rs’ bow, but it may also be his way of making any rules changes less of a surprise to the political world.

          We’ll find out in a few months.


          • MrDHalen

            I think if Obama wins re-election, he will immediately focus on pointing out the GOP obstruction. He can attack a beaten Republican party in hopes the moderates can regain some control and steer the party back to sanity. He should have the help of the media, because they will love the carnage that will take place in the GOP ranks.

            At least this is what I hope happens.

          • http://phydeauxpseaks.blogspot.com Bob Rutledge

            He should have the help of the media, because they will love the carnage that will take place in the GOP ranks.

            I wouldn’t count on that, because to The Media , “bad for Republicans” = “bad for profit”. And they’re all about the profit.

          • KanaW

            From your keyboard to the Universe. *fingers crossed*

  • KABoink_after_wingnut_hacker

    Personally, I think all the media coverage has been deliberately geared to create a neck & neck horserace. Of course we all need to get out and vote, and I’m still worried about the rightwings’ voter suppression efforts and wild-card electronic voting machines, but the republicans have managed to alienate huge sectors of the population and an Obama landslide might not be a surprise.

    • http://drangedinaz.wordpress.com/ IrishGrrrl

      I agree, I think the horse race is a media creation and the reality will be something quite different. Of course, this could just be wishful thinking on my part too.

      • TerranceGilmore

        I second this. Call it ridiculous, but I am confident that the election is not as close as it has been portrayed. I get that the national poll looks close, but if you go state by state, there really are very few ways for Romney to win.

  • bphoon

    I agree that the Obama campaign, by all indications, has a much stronger ground and GOTV game than Romney. While, of course, this thing is anything but in the bag, that, along with the general ineptitude of the vast majority of political pundits in this country, has allowed me to follow this campaign without an undue level of anxiety.

    I expect the DNC and other Democratic-affiliated groups have put extra emphasis on GOTV and early voting due to the GOP’s blatant efforts at voter suppression this time around. Given that, while these early voting percentages are encouraging, I doubt they’ll hold through election day. If the Democrats are emphasizing early voting it follows that the percentages would weight towards them. We’ll see what pans out the evening of November 6. It will, indeed, be interesting.

    • MrDHalen

      I’m following the gamblers, not the polls. Polls are emotion, gamblers use multiple sources of data to calculate the winner. If they shift, then I’ll worry.

      • http://www.politicalruminations.com/ nicole

        Ha! That’s what I do. Nate Silver and the betting markets. Keeps me from killing myself unnecessarily. :)

  • Ned F

    President Obama got Colin Powell’s endorsement this morning for what it’s worth, I’m sure Fox has already dismissed him as a doddering old traitorous fool.
    But for Sweet Baby Jeesus sake, the voters reelected GB after it became pretty clear that his bunch had lied us into Iraq, which cost us billions that he conveniently left out of the budget, took away our freedoms with the Patriot Act, blew out the surplus with tax cuts to the wealthiest, gave up on Bin Laden and gave us anemic economic growth compared to his predecessor.
    There is no reason that Obama’s reelection should be this close.

    • bphoon

      Agreed, but you’ll recall that people eventually woke up to Bush’s shenanigans. It struck me, though, that it happened a year too late–in 2005…

      • KanaW

        And considering the average American voter’s ability to vote in a snit and then suffer from a serious case of buyer’s regret, I don’t hold out much hope for them awakening before the election.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=663669914 Sean Richardson

    I wonder if it’s connected with the general fear, much stronger on the Democrats’ side, of vote suppression. If people are afraid they won’t be allowed to vote, they try to vote now, and if there’s a problem, they might still be able to resolve it before Election Day.