Election 2012

Obama Nearly Regains Pre-First-Debate Poll Average

No, national poll averages aren't as important as the state-by-state averages, other than as a predictor of the popular vote, but I thought it was worth noting that the president has almost entirely regained his pre-first-debate average per TPM's Polltracker. The only difference is that Romney's polling surge slightly before but mainly after the first debate was enough to tighten the race. All of that said, Romney had a terrible day of polling yesterday and I suspect his numbers will continue to deteriorate.

State polling from late Wednesday via Taegan:

Colorado: Obama 50%, Romney 47% (We Ask America)
Colorado: Romney 46%, Obama 45% (Reuters/Ipsos)
Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (Quinnipiac)
Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (Public Policy Polling)
Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 46% (University of Cincinnati)
Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (Reuters/Ipsos)
Florida: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (Quinnipiac)
Florida: Obama 47%, Romney 47% (Reuters/Ipsos)
Iowa: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (Public Policy Polling)
North Carolina: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (Public Policy Polling)
Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (Quinnipiac)
Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 46% (Reuters/Ipsos)

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Kevin-Krupski/100002308768984 Kevin Krupski

    But Sean Hannity is saying that a new poll is show Mittens in the lead, and the Lt. Gov assistant of Ohio says that Obama is down in early voting, And we all know they would not make stuff up to jerk their egos off.

  • incredulous72

    Bob, who the hell is Mark Blumenthal over at HuffPo and why is HIS article the front page header in the Politics section suggesting that the swing states’ poll numbers in President Obama’s favor are wrong?!

    WTF is going on? Unless the numbers are skewed towards the right, all of a sudden they don’t matter anymore?!

  • i_a_c

    The only poll that matters to me going into next week is Ohio and the latest polls have the president up about 3-4 points on average. If the president wins Ohio, the election will be over by 11:00 Central.

  • http://www.politicalruminations.com/ nicole

    I predict an Obama win with a comfortable margin in both the electoral vote and the popular vote. This is based on Silver’s model, and the fact that the polls do not take into account certain issues with polling Latinos. The Latino vote is expected to skew heavily to Obama (67% say they are for Obama), and this is not accounted for in the polls.

    GO, Obama!!

  • http://twitter.com/GodIsDead Gern Blandston

    I dunno, given what kind of pure poison has spewed from Christie’s mouth in the last month pre-Sandy, I cannot believe anything other than A) He’s going to start back up with the anti-PresO vitriol before the election, or B) he realizes Romney is toast, and is hitching his wagon to the winning horse, planning ahead for 2016. I find the man’s sudden change of heart to be utterly disingenuous.

    • TerranceGilmore

      I think it says he knows Obama is going to win

    • http://www.politicalruminations.com/ nicole

      I am no fan of Christie. but in my opinion, Chris Christie had an epiphany when the [NOT caused by global warming] hurricane destroyed his state.

      Whether or not that will last, is not predictable, but maybe we are seeing the beginnings of a man driven leftward by a crisis. One can only hope.

      Adding……I think he was sincere in his dealings with the public and the president in the aftermath of Sandy.

    • villemar

      Remember his state is one of the few that have a gubenatorial election in 2013, and NJ is solid blue. Christie may be many things, but he’s not an idiot. Regardless of the motives, we should always give kudos to Republicans when they act like a sane, rational adult human being.

    • incredulous72

      Gern, I said the EXACT SAME THING.

      I do not believe in my heart of hearts that Christie would tout the President so much if he thought Romney had a clear chance at winning this thing. Would he thank him for his efforts? Sure; but not in the way he is right now. I believe with Christie going all over the country and being a surrogate for Romney, he sees there isn’t anyway for Romney to win this thing and he’s realizing that he needs to be as moderate as possible in the coming days so that he can work WITH the Democrats.

      Christie understands that being a far-right loon in the primary and then lying your ass off in the general is not going to get a candidate the votes that they need in order to win an election.

      And he probably has also come to the conclusion that Romney is a sociopathic fraud.

  • TerranceGilmore

    I think the trend is pretty clear.

    If we pretend the debates never happend, what we have is a presidential race where the challenger picked up 1 point nationally against the incumbant over the course of two months.

    I still maintain that the election will not be that close (Obama with more than 300 electoral votes) I think Obama will in Virginia, Ohio, NH, Iowa, Nevada and Colorado. If things get really ugly for Romney over the course of the next few days, Florida may be the state the turns this from a “close” race to a bit of a landslide.

    I really believe that the news cycle has vastly favored Obama. The only mention Romney is getting at all at this point is over how badly he screwed up his response to this situation. Could anyone have imagined a week ago that Chris Christie would be Obama’s strongest surrogate?

    Honestly, if Sandy had hit a month ago, is it inconceivable to imagine Christie on the stump for Obama? I certainly can’t piture him out there attacking the President.

  • http://twitter.com/TeekeeMon/ Derek Losey

    I like Nate showing +1.9 now… and Sam Wang showing +2.3

    But I’d much rather have the (pre-debate1) +3.6 that we used to have… going into this weekend.

    • TerranceGilmore

      2 points nationally is a pretty wide gap.

    • rob black

      Silver also has Obama’s likely electoral count above 300 again…so Yeah!!

    • LK3

      This is also encouraging…Nate Silver bet Joe Scarborough $1000 Obama wins…

      • http://twitter.com/SugaRazor Razor

        Surely they can both afford more than that?

        • http://drangedinaz.wordpress.com/ IrishGrrrl

          Scarborough sure but I don’t know about Silver. Famous doesn’t always mean rich.

          • http://twitter.com/SugaRazor Razor

            He’s got a best-selling book, a sweet gig with the NYT, and is generally all over the place.

            Hell, I could afford a $1000 donation… probably wouldn’t eat for a couple weeks, but I could make it happen!

    • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1141838844 Cindi Morgan

      I like Nate Silver’s bet to @JoeNBC that Obama wins.