Pollsters: The Winners and Losers

According to Fordham University's Center for Electoral Politics and Democracy, Public Policy Polling tied itself (PPP) as the most accurate pollster.

via Daily Kos

1. PPP (D)
1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP

3. YouGov
4. Ipsos/Reuters
5. Purple Strategies
6. YouGov/Economist
11. Angus-Reid
12. ABC/WP
13. Pew Research
13. Hartford Courant/UConn
15. Monmouth/SurveyUSA
15. Politico/GWU/Battleground
15. FOX News
15. Washington Times/JZ Analytics
15. Newsmax/JZ Analytics
15. American Research Group
15. Gravis Marketing
23. Democracy Corps (D)
24. Rasmussen
24. Gallup

26. NPR
27. National Journal
28. AP/GfK

For Gallup and Rasmussen this is just embarrassing. And Gallup seemingly knew this was how things were going to turn out because they ceased polling last Monday after having Mitt Romney up by as much as 6 points nationally among likely voters.

  • D_C_Wilson

    I’ve lost count of how many conservatives proclaimed that Rasmussen was the “most accurate” pollster during the 2008 election. Of course, they never cite any sources to support that claim.

    Gallup really has some explaining to do. As does NPR. Were they that terrified Romney was going to kill their funding?

    • muselet

      It’s not exactly true (try not to be shocked).

      Wikipedia sez:

      In 2004, Slate said they “publicly doubted and privately derided Rasmussen” polls because of the methodology. However, after the election, they concluded that Rasmussen’s polls were the most accurate.


      An initial Nov.5, 2008 Fordham University analysis ranked 23 survey research organizations on the accuracy of their final, national pre-election polls, assuming a 6.15% margin of victory by Obama. Rasmussen Reports and Pew Research Center tied as the most accurate. Obama’s actual margin was 7.2%, and a complete analysis published in 2009 by the same author, Costas Panagopoulos, revealed Rasmussen to be tied for 9th most accurate.

      Demographic and population shifts can screw up even the best polling operations, which may have caught Gallup and NPR out. I expect both organizations will spend the next couple of weeks figuring out what went wrong.


  • bphoon

    Interesting how most of the names associated with conservative-leaning organizations are in the bottom half of this ranking.