Election 2012

The Effeminate Wizard Got It Right

And he's being properly rewarded for it.

According to Fortune, sales of Silver's book have skyrocketed.

Sales of the book, "The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't" shot up 850% on Amazon.com during the last 24 hours. It is now the second best selling book on the site, behind only popular children's book, "The Third Wheel, Diary of a Wimpy Kid Book 7."

FiveThirtyEight also accounted for as much as 20 percent of the New York Times' traffic on Monday before the election.

For the record, this was his final state-by-state projection.

And this is how it turned out notwithstanding a potential recount in the electoral hellhole of Florida. (via Google)

Silver was repeatedly attacked and derided by the Right for supposedly exaggerating the president's chances, but in the end President Obama may performed slightly better nationally than Silver projected. A surprising number of votes in liberal states are still outstanding and have yet to be counted while the president's current margin of victory stands at nearly 3 million votes.

  • Victor_the_Crab

    Nate Silver today:

  • agrazingmoose

    Nate is a local boy from East Lansing and I’ll tell you, the folks here are really proud of him.

  • agrazingmoose

    It would be great if the people that buy Nate’s book actually read it. That would be a step forward!

  • D_C_Wilson

    Well, let’s give Chambers credit for eating crow today.


    Meanwhile, on Fox, Dick Morris is blaming America for proving him wrong.

    • bphoon

      Well, let’s give Chambers credit for eating crow today.

      Yup. Gotta give him credit for that. In my experience, it’s the rare Republican who will admit any kind of error.

  • BuffaloBuckeye

    I’ve got a suggestion for 2016, based on Silver’s uncanny capabilities and, um.. Florida. Have Nate ‘do his thing’, then call the election based on his results. It would; save voters standing in line for hours on end, save Rove having a stroke (although on 2nd thought..) and allow me to get to bed at a decent hour.

  • JozefAL

    @LOrion: I think the use of “effeminate” refers back to how the so-called Unskewed Polls creator, Dean Chambers, attempted to belittle Silver’s work. (I swear DisqUs drives me crazy. Sometimes I can post a direct reply to a comment; other times, I have to post my reply as a new comment.)

  • bphoon

    Un-fucking-canny. In ’08 he was lauded for calling 49 of 50 states right. This time, if Florida holds, he runs the table, 50 for 50. Even more impressive to me is his prediction that the President had just over a 20% probability of getting 332 electoral votes–the highest probability of the distribution. Again, if Florida holds, President Obama will have, you guessed it, 332 electoral votes.

  • http://www.politicalruminations.com/ nicole

    Nate Silver apparently got EVERY state right. In 2008, he got 49 states right.

    It’s certainly safe to say that he is the #1 electoral statistician, bar none.

    The wingnuts who bullied him are, no doubt, trying desperately to forget they ever opened their big, know-nothing mouths.

    adds…….I am so glad that I watched Silver’s forecasts and not necessarily the polls (it saved me a lot of grief)!

    • gescove

      Absolutely. Nate Silver saved my sanity this cycle. Plus, he earned me $40 in bets won with some of my (sadly) RW family. I had them make contributions to Hurricane Sandy relief. They refused, however, to write “With apologies from a climate change denier” on the memo line.

      • http://www.politicalruminations.com/ nicole

        “With apologies from a climate change denier”

        LOL!! I would pay to see some of the big wingnuts do that (like Joe Scarborough, et al)! :)

  • http://twitter.com/LOrion LOrion

    Ah, but some don’t apparently know… did you just OUT him? Cuz Jimmy Fallon said last night ‘Nate Silver, appears to be the only (straight) white guy who won!..
    which just made me want to question if Sherrod Browna and Paul Ryan had anything to tell us.

    • D_C_Wilson

      Ryan wouldn’t surprise me.