This seems like a pretty clear illustration of just how bad the GOP's Obamacare repeal bill is.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that individual insurance premiums would increase by up to 20 percent over the next two years if the GOP bill is signed into law. The CBO also estimated that premiums would decrease by 10 percent in the following years, however that analysis assumes that most insurance plans won't be required to cover very much and that seniors will be priced out of the market.
New analysis from the Brookings Institute estimates that individual insurance premiums would increase even further (relative to current law) if insurance companies were required to provide the same level of coverage as they do now.
However, as some observers have noted, this estimated change incorporates changes in the generosity of the plans being offered on the individual market, as well as a shift in the composition of individual market enrollment toward younger individuals, who pay lower premiums. The CBO estimate does not, therefore, answer the question of greatest interest, which is how CBO expects the AHCA to affect average premiums for a given generosity of coverage and a fixed population of individual market enrollees.
However, other information provided in CBO’s analysis can be used to answer this question. Using that information, we estimate that premiums would be around 13 percent higher under the AHCA than they are under current law, holding plan generosity and the individual market age distribution fixed at their current law levels.
In other words, premiums would increase under Trumpcare if the quality and quantity of coverage provided was equal. Obamacare is undoubtedly a better deal than Trumpcare.
That may seem obvious, but this is a significant finding because additional changes to the law that could potentially lower insurance premiums are part of Speaker Paul Ryan's so-called "three-pronged approach," or what Ted Cruz refers to as the "sucker's bucket." There's no guarantee that any of it will pass as it could be filibustered.
In that event, under ideal conditions, most people would find themselves paying more than they would have under Obamacare for the same level of coverage. It's just as likely that most people will find themselves paying more for lesser coverage. The average person is pretty much fucked even if Republicans manage to pass everything they want to pass.
The best option for the GOP is to do nothing.