Even conservative analysis estimated that the GOP's tax cuts would add only a small amount of growth to the economy each year, but some economists now say it may not add any growth at all.
Why not?
Economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco say it may not add any growth because our economy was already doing about as well as it could before the tax cuts were passed.
From the Wall Street Journal:
That’s because the changes took effect at a time when the economy was already firing on all cylinders. As a result, there are fewer unemployed workers, spare resources and idled factories ready to kick into action than there would have been during a downturn. [...]
Among the research Messrs. Mahedy and Wilson cited were estimates of the so-called fiscal multiplier, or the response of gross domestic product to changes in tax and spending policy. While some of the research found there was merely a larger impact from stimulus measures during recessions than during expansions, other “literature on fiscal spending multipliers suggests an even smaller boost, as low as zero.”
The Fed economists also wrote that passing the tax cuts while the economy was doing well raises serious concerns that we'll be able to repeat the process when an actual economic downturn arrives.
That certainly seems like a legitimate concern because the GOP's tax cuts are already expected to add $1.5 trillion to the federal deficit and passing some sort of stimulus package during an actual time of need would undoubtedly add a trillion more.
Trump and the GOP campaigned to pass their tax cuts on the idea that the economy desperately needed to be rescued after President Obama left it in tatters, but that was a lie. Republicans say their tax cuts will lead to as much 3 percent growth per year, but the economy was already growing at that rate before Trump was inaugurated and before they passed their tax cuts.
President Obama's policies and the strong economy he left behind are probably the only reason we're not already in a Trump recession. Trump's is playing on borrowed time with his trade war and chaotic foreign policy.