None of these top five Ames Straw Poll winners will get the nomination:
Michele Bachmann: 4823
Ron Paul: 4671
Tim Pawlenty: 2293
Rick Santorum: 1657
Herman Cain: 1456
These bottom several won't get it either:
Newt Gingrich: 385
Jon Huntsman: 69
Thad McCotter: 35
The Ames event isn't predictive of the nominee. (Phil Gramm, George H.W. Bush and Mike Huckabee won previous polls.)
It's either going to be Bush III or Romney. Everything that happens in Iowa, including the caucus, is irrelevant.
I was thinking about Bush III yesterday and the more I think about him, the more I sure the Republicans will nominate him. They want to get the Texas cowboy thing right and I think they're going back to the well. And the far-right will never support Romney.