Economy

Mexico Might Leave NAFTA Before We Do

JM Ashby
Written by JM Ashby

Trump and many Americans view the world from an American-centric perspective where the rest of the world needs us more than we need them, and while in some cases that's probably still true in 2017, it's not necessarily true for our biggest trade partners.

Mexican economic minister Ildefonso Guajardo indicated yesterday that his nation may beat us to the punch in pulling out of NAFTA if our child president, Donald Trump, is serious about squeezing the country.

"There could be no other option. Go for something that is less than what we already have? It would not make sense to stay," Guajardo said when asked on television if Mexico could pull out of the trade deal with Canada and the United States.

"The strategy for this treaty needs to be one in which everyone wins. It's impossible to sell it here at home if there aren't clear benefits for Mexico," he added.

At this point we have to talk about the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) again, because it's all connected.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership would have effectively replaced NAFTA and included Asian-pacific countries that we don't currently have a similar trade deals with, but Trump has effectively killed the deal.

This matters because China's alternative trade deal, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), could include Mexico in our absence.

If all of this plays out the way it appears to be playing out today, it doesn't mean we will no longer be able to purchase goods imported from Mexico, or Canada, other an other nation, but you personally will end up paying more for it. The cost of virtually everything will increase when Trump abandons our trade agreements while delivering no net increase in jobs or wages.

We do not have the infrastructure to produce everything we import domestically and, even if every major importer began building new factories and plants tomorrow, it would take decades to replace what we've lost. Moreover, the majority of it would be automated. Adding a thousand temporary jobs here or there, like Trump's bullshit "deal" with Carrier in Indiana, is a drop in the bucket compared to monthly and yearly job growth in the US.

  • Badgerite

    I will take a healthy 2% growth rate any day over unhealthy boom and bust cycles brought about by careening and contradictory policies.

  • muselet

    Trump and many Americans view the world from an American-centric perspective where the rest of the world needs us more than we need them.…

    And like the British government’s insistence that the EU needs the UK more than the UK needs the EU, that perspective is wrong, potentially catastrophically so.

    Donald Trump is already well on his way to making George W Bush look like an economic genius.

    –alopecia

  • Scopedog

    Just saw some asshole on Twitter praising Sanders for being against the TPP and blasting Hillary for voting for NAFTA….and of course, Hillary never voted for NAFTA because she was First Lady at the time, not a Senator.

    Jesus. The stupidity at both ends of the political spectrum is a sight to behold.

  • Aynwrong

    As much as it will hurt America there will be a perverse satisfaction to be had if this hurts America more than anyone else. As for the American workers that this hurts, if they’re running around with one of those stupid MAGA hats on their heads the most polite thing I could possibly say to them is, You were told. You were warned.

    • Scopedog

      You were told. You were warned.

      I think that applies to Stein supporters and those “Bernie or Bust!” folks too. And the ones who did not bother to vote.

      Actually, when you think about it, it will be the second time in nearly 20 years when the country will suffer for the deep stupidity of a minority of us. The first was the Bush II years. Obama was elected and put out the fires and repaired as much of the damage as he could. And yet, we forgot what happened before, we let the purists run wild, we let the GOP take back the House and Senate because too many of us didn’t bother to vote in the midterms, and the media kept up their “both sides” bullshit despite the clear evidence to the contrary.

      And so here we are.

      • KABoink_after_wingnut_hacker

        Well said and I agree totally.
        The Bernibots are still defending their wasted or protest votes even when reminded of the SCOTUS being irreparably damaged for generations.

  • This will really hurt Arizona. Mexico is by far our biggest trading partner. We export well over $8 billion annually in goods to them and import over $7 billion annually from them. Mexican visitors spend on average over $7 million PER DAY.

    It will take generations for us to fix everything that Herr Drumpf will tear down in a four years.

    • ninjaf

      Hey, but we just need to give him a chance, right? ::eyeroll::

      • Aynwrong

        To quote him: WRONG!

    • Scopedog

      Sorry to hear that…damn.

      People have to remember that a lot can happen in four years–the damage done by the Bush II years was inflicted in his first four year term. The de-regulation that led to the recession, the invasion and occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan, the Patriot Act, the embrace of torture and Gitmo, the “fuck you!” attitude to the world, the anti-gay shit….

      What will Trump unleash? God only knows. But I swear, I hope to God it finally causes the destruction of the foolish far-Left belief that both political parties are the same. Because there is no way in hell that Hillary Clinton would be this fucking awful as President, and I don’t give a flying fuck what Susan Sarandon says.

      • The way things are going, Trump is on track to do most of his damage in four months

  • ninjaf

    Has he talked to those companies that have a supply chain going through Mexico? I bet one or two of them are going to have something to say. And these are not Mom and Pop-type employers we are talking about. All of those “union free” southern states with auto plants in them are going to be hit HARD, just off the top of my head.