No Responsibility

JM Ashby
Written by JM Ashby

(Cartoonist - Mike Luckovich )

In other news, Detroit's big three automakers Ford, General Motors, and Fiat-Chrysler are shutting down all of their American factories.

Meanwhile, the market dropped by enough this afternoon to wipe out all the gains since Trump took office in 2017. Trading was automatically halted at one point.

Finally, let us hope these projections from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) are wrong. They estimate at least half of the world's population will be infected by covid-19 over the next year.

“We assume that the virus will infect around 50% of the world population; 20% of the cases will be severe, and 1-3% will result in deaths,” analysts from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) said in a note.

“Death ratios will depend on the capacity of countries to effectively detect, track, and contain the epidemic,” EIU analysts said. “Death ratios will be higher in countries with poor healthcare systems — in Sub-Saharan Africa for instance.” [...]

The EIU also warned in its note that the coronavirus “will become a seasonal disease, with another outbreak in Winter 2020/21,” with analysts adding that they did not expect a vaccine to come onto the market until at least the end of next year.

That last bit concerns me the most. If there's no vaccine for another year, and if the virus resurfaces, the economic consequences won't be limited to just the next few months.

A 1 percent death rate infecting half of the world's population (3.8 billion) would mean 38 million deaths. A 3 percent death rate would mean 114 million deaths. Even a 0.5 percent death rate would mean 19 million deaths. It's a lot.

  • ffakr

    Edit.. I skimmed over the fact you were looking at half the world population getting infected.. deleted bit about population being 7.7B.

    Worst thing.. totalitarian countries might end up faring the best since they’ll have the easiest time enforcing draconian measures to try and interrupt the spread of the disease. They’ll also have the easiest time marshaling all of their Nation’s resources for research & vaccination campaigns.

    In the US, on the other hand, I read today that TP and webcams are the only thing in short supply. Ammo is flying off the shelves too. Wingnuts are loading up tor the zombie appocalypse (or race war) that they’ve always been dreaming of. Wonder how they would deal with a order of Marshall Law if it came fro Dear Leader instead of a libtard DemoRat? could go either way.

  • muselet

    The EIU is assuming and estimating based on little actual data (I’m not saying the conclusions are wrong, just to be clear). It’s good the numbers being produced are horrific, though: maybe people will take the threat seriously.

    Maybe. I have me some doubts, given continuing hoarding of toilet paper and bottled water, behavior I find utterly incomprehensible. I understand the need to feel in control of something, but nobody needs to fill their garage with enormous packages of bog roll.

    Sorry, pet peeve, and no, I’m not out of the stuff.

    One bright spot for me is I now have the free time to get stuck into Seamus Heaney’s Modern English translation of Beowulf. Hey, when life gives you lemons …


  • gescove

    Ford, GM, Chrysler shutting down ALL of their American factories. Holy Hell.

  • Aynwrong

    My God…