Poll

No, Trump Isn’t Dead Yet

JM Ashby
Written by JM Ashby

Donald Trump is still favored to win the New Hampshire primary next Tuesday unless something very dramatic occurs between now and then.

According to a new University of Massachusetts-Lowell poll conducted after the Iowa caucuses, Trump still has a 24-point lead in New Hampshire.

He has the support 38 percent of likely Republican primary voters, compared to 14 percent for Ted Cruz and 12 percent for Marco Rubio. Jeb Bush ranks fourth, with 9 percent, while John Kasich rounds out the top five, with 7 percent.

New Hampshire’s Republican-leaning voters are also loyal to their favorite candidate, pollsters found.

This is inline with the RCP average which shows Donald Trump as a 21 point favorite in New Hampshire.

Many people have a wide range of opinions on why Donald Trump lost in Iowa, but I personally believe he lost because his campaign did not take the task of organizing seriously. That will not be as much of a hindrance in New Hampshire which holds a primary vote rather than a series of arcane caucuses that almost no one understands.

Trump currently has a 16 point lead in South Carolina and a 21 point lead in Florida according to the RCP average.

  • Badgerite

    No. But he really needs to win by larger numbers than 25 percent. All that means is that 75% of GOP voters don’t want him as their nominee.

  • muselet

    As Bob said on yesterday’s podcast, Donald Trump’s whole shtick is that he’s a winner, and now he’s lost.

    Whether the short-fingered vulgarian remains a viable candidate much past New Hampshire is very much an open question. It depends on whether his supporters retreat to their Barcaloungers and pout, or rally round their candidate.

    The next couple of weeks could be fascinating to watch.

    –alopecia

  • ninjaf

    I think Cruz was able to win in Iowa simply because Trump’s supporters are easily swayed. They got there to caucus for Trump and then were able to see excitement in another group of voters and went where the energy was that day.

    A complete guess.