Report: At Least 15 Million Will Lose Coverage Under Trumpcare

JM Ashby
Written by JM Ashby

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is not expected to release a score for the GOP's Obamacare "replacement" bill until next week, but the Brookings Institute has produced its own estimates based on past CBO reports.

According to Brookings, at least 15 million people will lose their coverage under Trumpcare, or "Ryancare," if you prefer.

There is significant uncertainty about exactly how CBO will model these provisions and how it will expect the various provisions to interact with one another. Nonetheless, we conclude that CBO’s analysis will likely estimate that at least 15 million people will lose coverage under the American Health Care Act (AHCA) by the end of the ten-year scoring window. Estimates could be higher, but it’s is unlikely they will be significantly lower.

What should immediately stand out is the Brookings estimation that "possibly millions more" could lose their coverage, meaning 15 million is a conservative or low-ball estimate.

I suspect the number could be significantly higher than 15 million unless states that expanded Medicaid under Obamacare develop their own ways to maintain coverage. But that seems unlikely in some cases. Large, wealthy states like New York and California may have the resources to maintain coverage, but small red states that accepted Medicaid expansion did so primarily because they're poor and needed the federal money to prevent local healthcare systems and rural hospitals from collapsing.

There's no way a state like Arkansas can maintain the same level of Medicaid coverage, which is probably why Senator Tom Cotton is no fan of Paul Ryan's approach.

  • muselet

    I prefer RepubliCare myself. Spread the blame for the train wreck as widely as possible.


  • katanahamon

    The “conservatives” apparently want an America with no social services at all, including postal services, public education, social security, medi-(insert suffix here), environmental protections, no regulations of any kind, no medical services, etc. I am dumbfounded by the fact that the people most dependent on the existing services I mentioned are also the ones who vote R. How is this possible?

    There are many admirable elements of conservatism, but when it became entangled with religious fundamentalism and overt nationalism (not for noble causes of course, just ritualistic flag waving to get votes) and now with Rump’s campaign, the courting of openly known racist and conspiracy theory driven organizations, the possibility of any intellectual or productive debate between it and liberalism became impossible. Facts are now open to “interpretation.” If there are no facts, there can be no debate as there is not even an agreement as to what constitutes reality.

    We have a large segment of America that has decided to create their own media, their own “facts,” their own reality. Unless the left and liberals can unite, and not be so busy squabbling amongst themselves as to “who’s the purest liberal of us all,” and refusing to unite for the good of the many, we risk losing America entirely.

  • Badgerite

    When I see these idiots positively grinning at the idea of throwing their constituents off of their healthcare coverage and salivating over turning over large pots of money to their donor base ( the 1% and above), I can’t help but see them as gleeful killers and thieves and nothing more. Bought and paid for. And trump will sign any God damned piece of crap they put on his desk. That is the only reason they gave him their support. Anyone who thought otherwise knows nothing about the trump Monster’s business record and the people he has left holding the bag for his own incompetence.

  • Badgerite

    Wow. That’s a lot of ‘iPhones’. No wonder Chaffetz doesn’t like Town Hall meet and greets anymore.

  • Ellen Kuhlmann

    Obamacare is flawed, but it was a good start. This is driving in reverse. Of course Trump is going to label any criticism of it as “fake news” and keep insisting it provides great healthcare. It will be passed unless people who usually support the GOP rise up. Not optimistic it will happen.

    • There might be enough opposition within the GOP itself to kill the bill since the Freedumb Caucus is opposing it as being “too generous”.

      • Ellen Kuhlmann

        yes, and they want to end the Medicaid expansion by 2018, while the regular GOPers want to extend it to 2020 so they don’t get hit in the mid-terms. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.

  • Since the Brookings Institute is a conservative think tank it just goes to show you how crappy this bill really is. We know that about 22 million gained insurance from the ACA and they’re estimating a minimum of 15 million will lose it. Then factor in the voucher bullshit that will never increase in value while the real cost will continue to rise (faster and faster because of this debacle), and eventually the real number losing healthcare will be more than the 22 million. We will be worse off than we were before it started.

    And for all those twats who say “if Drumpf did something good, would you give him credit?” Yes, if he proposed and implemented single payer I would shout his name to heavens. That is, until he fucks up with some more white supremacist bullshit and then I’m back to square one with his dumb ass. But waiting for someone like Drumpf or, hell, anyone on the right to propose Single Payer AND then being able to implement it, is like waiting for a 100 chimps to type out a Shakespearean play. It might happen some day but I wouldn’t bet my life on it. Oh how I wish we could just fast forward through these Drumpf years. We are changing as a nation and the old guard won’t let go. So we’re going to have to pry their cold, arthritic hands off the steering wheel and hide the damn keys. And until we do so the wreckage is going to pile up. How many bodies have to litter our path before we get to Single Payer? Apparently there aren’t enough of them yet to guilt anyone on the right into a sanity. And there probably never will be.

    • Aynwrong

      Brookings can expect to be permanently read out of Conservatism (Is it still a movement?) for the duration of the Trump Administration.

    • katanahamon

      The “old guard” has brainwashed an entirely new generation into being just as racist and ignorant as they are. Unfortunately, they’ve now got their own media to reinforce it all, whereas in the past, the “nightly news” was at least factually correct (fairness doctrine) and everyone was watching more or less the same things, reading the same things, and this allowed for at least a basis for debate; now, they don’t have to debate..they have all the answers they need provided to them. I still can’t believe that anyone in their right mind could have voted for a man that acted like Rump did during the debates, a liar, a fraud, a cheat, a business failure, a criminal in so many ways, yet with their propaganda machine including Fox, Breitbart etc they just glossed over all of it..even his foul mouthed “pussy grabber” comments.

    • muselet

      I’ll disagree with you very slightly on one point: the Brookings Institution isn’t meaningfully “conservative.” It’s always presented itself as nonpartisan (and actually has been, for the most part), and in the past was the think tank one one-thousandth of a degree to the Left of center while the Heritage Foundation was one one-thousandth of a degree to the Right of center.

      Then Heritage careered into Atilla the Hun territory forty years ago, dragging the Overton Window—and any think tank that wanted to be taken seriously by the High Broderists in DC, like for instance Brookings—with it.

      The rest of your comment, I agree with 100%.