Although there is no text or final agreement for "phase one" of Trump's "greatest and biggest deal ever," Bloomberg first reported this afternoon that the two sides have agreed to a deal "in principle."
Although no one knows exactly what will be in the deal because there is no text yet, the White House is reportedly reaching out businesses and asking them to praise the non-existent deal they cannot read.
U.S. negotiators have reached the terms of a phase-one trade deal with China that now awaits President Donald Trump’s approval, according to people briefed on the plans. [...]
The terms have been agreed but the legal text has not yet been finalized, according to the people. The administration has reached out to allies on Capitol Hill and in the business community to issue statements of support once the announcement is made, they said.
This it not unexpected and I personally receive the news with a healthy does of skepticism.
As you know, this is not the first time or even the second Trump has reached a "deal" with China and yet his trade war persists. And what we know of this latest "deal" tells us that, even if it is real, Trump's trade war will persist.
Even if we generously assume that this deal will become a reality and China will accept a partial cut to Trump's tariffs, that means we'll be looking at permanent tariffs of about 15 percent for as long as Trump remains in office. And "phase one" will likely please the market in the short-term but, eventually, everyone is going to realize this means tariffs are here to stay for good.
Bloomberg did not report an expected timeline of events, but I think we can infer that there will be no official text for a deal before the new year.