The American coronavirus death toll could increase by 20,000 or more in just the next 20 days according to updated projections from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) which say the toll will increase to at least 173,000 by August 22nd.
Officials say the pandemic has spread to rural communities and the death toll will average about 1,000 ever day through the end of the month beyond that.
The relentless death toll is projected to reach 173,000 by August 22, according to a new composite forecast from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That's an average of almost 1,000 US deaths every day for the next 30 days. [...]
As of Sunday morning, the test positivity rate was rising in most states compared to last week, and 34 states had higher-than-recommended test positivity rates, according to Johns Hopkins.
"There are two things that are going on," said Dr. Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute.
"One is the underlying level of infection is rising, which is obviously the thing we are most concerned about," Jha said.
"But in about 18 to 20 states, the number of tests that are being done is actually falling. And it's falling because our testing system is under such strain that we just can't even deliver the tests today that we were doing two weeks ago in about 18 to 20 states. That's very concerning because when cases are rising, and your number of tests are falling, that's a recipe for disaster."
Another way of putting this is that between 9,000 and 11,000 Americans will be killed by the virus each week for at least the next month and probably beyond that point, too.
Are you attending the "white trash bash?" Think anyone will be wearing a mask there?
I had my own scare this past week when one of my closest friends dropped out of contact. He works at federal government office where several of his co-workers have tested positive in recent weeks. And when someone disappears for a week during a pandemic, it's not quite the same as when things are normal.
The CDC's new projections only apply to the rest of this month, but it's hard to see things improving in September or October. The situation could actually become much worse if a majority of school systems resume in-person classes this month.
Many school systems including in my own home county here in Ohio are going to proceed with remote learning from home, but many more will not be doing that. And no one can say for sure what that will lead to, but I don't have a good feeling about it.
A lot of kids could lose their parents or grandparents in the coming months after attending school and carrying the virus back home with them.