“We will lose over 100,000”

JM Ashby
Written by JM Ashby

Trump once said the coronavirus would magically disappear "like a miracle," but the rest his recent history.

Trump begrudgingly predicted we would eventually lose up to 60,000 Americans to the virus and possibly even 100,000 at some point, but he moved his own goal posts again this morning now we're poised to 'score' in the next week.

Appearing on Fox Business, Trump said we'll lose more than 100,000 to the virus.

The president said he expects a vaccine to be available by the end of this year, a very optimistic timeline given that many experts, including Coronavirus Task Force member Dr. Anthony Fauci, say it will take at least 12 to 18 months. The virus has killed more than 84,000 Americans so far, as states begin to reopen their economies. The president indicated he expects that number to continue to climb.

"We will lose over 100,000, perhaps, in this country," the president said in the interview that aired Thursday.

With most of the country reopening to some extent, and with us reaching 100,000 deaths within the next 7 to 10 days, we're clearly going to see far more deaths than that over the next 12 months when a vaccine becomes widely available. It's not as if people will suddenly stop dying just because we crossed some new threshold or benchmark that we've invented. The rate of death will slow, but never stop.

Trump also tweeted this morning that a vaccine will be distributed before the end of this year which means that's almost certainly not going to happen.

Officials from the European Medicines Agency, the European Union's top medical regulator, say that while they're doing every they can to speed development of a vaccine, they expect it will take at least 12 months even under an "optimistic" scenario.

Meanwhile, Dr. Rick Bright, the ousted director of the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, also testified this morning that a vaccine will take at least 12 to 18 months to develop even under ideal conditions. But perhaps more alarmingly, Bright agreed with Congressional Democrats who hypothesize that Trump would mishandle development and distribution of a vaccine.

Bright also warned that, as of May 1st, the federal government had not placed any large orders for needles and syringes and that the number of them we'll need (in the billions) will take years to manufacture.

  • Scopedog

    This is why we need to vote en masse in November for Biden. No excuses, no “but both candidates are the same!!” bullshit, NOTHING.

    It’s either we get an administration that will take science seriously and work to deal with this pandemic and help stave off the next potential one or we keep the worst administration in modern history that will make things a thousand times worse. That’s the simple math–and yet I’m afraid that some don’t want to figure it out because they want to sit in their purity corner and diddle themselves.

    • muselet

      Preach it, brother!


    • Draxiar

      People with purity tests and the classic both-sides drivel are lazy. That’s it. They don’t know what to think about or how to deal with the struggles of the hard task of being involved with governmental participation (which, if you live in a country you’re part of the process). Nope…all of that is too difficult so just they just say it’s all for naught and the entire system is busted, both are the same, this candidate had email, and this one isn’t me, so they’re all bad.

  • muselet

    “We will lose over 100,000, perhaps, in this country,” the president said in the interview that aired Thursday.

    “Perhaps” is the best part of that statement. Donald Trump is still pretending there’s any doubt.

    A vaccine might—might—be developed by the end of the year, but it wouldn’t be ready for distribution until safety testing was completed. Either Trump misunderstood something said at a briefing (possible) or he just pulled that prediction out of thin air (equally possible).

    Syringes and vials don’t manufacture themselves, a fact no one in the Executive Branch seems to understand. Further, companies that make them aren’t going to get too far ahead of demand (with government contracts being a good proxy for future demand): such products have expiration dates and no company is going to risk taking a dead loss.

    Why, it’s almost as if the US were about to blunder into yet another avoidable Charlie Foxtrot because nobody in government knows what they’re doing.

    Meanwhile, WHO emergencies director Mike Ryan warned that Sars-CoV-2 “may become just another endemic virus in our communities, and this virus may never go away.”


    • Tony Lavely

      Just curious.

      such products have expiration dates

      Why would syringes and vials expire?

      • muselet

        A fair question, and I actually goofed a bit.

        The sterile packaging around syringes typically has something like a five-year expiration. The package almost certainly remains sterile inside for longer if it’s undamaged, but the manufacturer doesn’t guarantee it. And eventually the plastics in the syringe will start to break down from UV and heat and so on, though that’s not a major concern if the syringes are stored properly.

        I goofed because empty glass vials don’t expire, although plastic ones do (again, plastics break down over time). Glass vials just sit around, taking up a surprising amount of space, until they get sterilized, filled and sealed; at that point, the clock starts on an expiration date based on the shelf life of the contents and the how long the stopper will hold a vacuum (when it leaks, the contents can’t be guaranteed to be sterile).

        Thanks for the chance to clarify.


        • Tony Lavely

          NP, and thanks for the clarification!