But that hasn't happened and it increasingly looks like it never will. I -- and apparently no one else -- believed Russian forces would be so unprepared and incompetent. I didn't expect they would perform so poorly. No one did.

Even Vladimir Putin himself did not know his forces would be so inadequate according to western intelligence reports. British and American intelligence sources say Putin's top military advisers misled Putin about their strength and then covered up their poor performance after the war began. Only now is the situation becoming clear to Putin.

Addressing the Australian National University on Thursday, Jeremy Fleming, director of GCHQ, Britain’s intelligence, cyber and security agency, said: “We believe Putin’s advisers are afraid to tell him the truth, what’s going on and the extent of these misjudgments must be crystal clear to the regime.”

“It increasingly looks like Putin has massively misjudged the situation. It’s clear he misjudged the resistance of the Ukrainian people. He underestimated the strength of the coalition his actions would galvanize. He underplayed the economic consequences of the sanctions regime. He overestimated the abilities of his military to secure a rapid victory,” Fleming said.

The director of British intelligence went on to say that Russia’s military leadership has descended into chaos, and that Putin’s campaign is “beset by problems — low morale, logistical failures and high Russian casualty numbers. Their command and control is in chaos.”

Referring to classified intelligence he has apparently reviewed, President Biden also stated that Putin may have sacked his top advisers and placed some of them under house arrest.

Reading these reports, I could not help but compare Vladimir Putin to Donald Trump who also surrounded himself with people who were either too afraid to tell him the truth or were incapable of knowing the truth. And that was by Trump's design just as it has been with Putin. Both men are egomaniacs who only want to be told how great everything else. Putin did not want his generals to tell him anything except that a swift victory was guaranteed.

Throughout this entire conflict I have been reminded of our own invasion of Iraq and how the Bush administration promised a swift victory that never came. That's obviously not a one-to-one comparison, but this is the problem with yes-men. This is what happens when a government is only concerned with blowing smoke up its own ass. Millions of people have paid a price for Putin's belief in his own greatness.

According to the top secret documents, the goal of installing Trump as president was to destabilize American society and weaken America's leadership position in the world.

The documents also confirm that Russian intelligence is in possession of compromising material that was obtained during Trump's trips to Russia.

The report – “No 32-04 \ vd” – is classified as secret. It says Trump is the “most promising candidate” from the Kremlin’s point of view. The word in Russian is perspektivny.

There is a brief psychological assessment of Trump, who is described as an “impulsive, mentally unstable and unbalanced individual who suffers from an inferiority complex”.

There is also apparent confirmation that the Kremlin possesses kompromat, or potentially compromising material, on the future president, collected – the document says – from Trump’s earlier “non-official visits to Russian Federation territory”.

If the goal was to throw American society into turmoil and weaken our diplomatic position, there's no denying the operation was a success.

Trump destabilized the country far more than a direct rhetorical attack from any foreign power could and he's not even finished. Trump is still holding rallies and may run for president again. And even with President Biden leading the country, our allies are still not entirely sure they can count on the United States long into the future because Trump demonstrated that American voters can't be trusted even Biden himself and the Democratic party can be.

We'll probably never know if the so-called "pee tape" was real, but it doesn't matter what Russia's "kompromat" included. They got what they wanted even if there is no pee tape.

To some extent I suppose this is all old news, but the Republican party would like to give Moscow more of what they want. Everything old could be new again if the GOP gets their way.

The New York Times first reported that the Trump regime also subpoenaed Apple for records on former White House Counsel Don McGahn.

WASHINGTON — The Justice Department subpoenaed Apple for information in February 2018 about an account that belonged to Donald F. McGahn II, President Donald J. Trump’s White House counsel at the time, and barred the company from telling him about it, according to two people briefed on the matter.

Apple told Mr. McGahn about the subpoena last month, said one of the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the matter. Mr. McGahn’s wife also received a similar notice from Apple, the person said.

It is not clear what F.B.I. agents were investigating, whether Mr. McGahn was their specific focus or whether he was swept up in a larger net because he had communicated with someone who was under scrutiny.

If you're not aware, the White House Counsel is the executive branch's top lawyer. The White House Counsel would ordinarily weigh in on the surveillance of someone inside the White House, but in this case it was him who was under surveillance.

The effort to spy on congressional Democrats and even the White House's top lawyer were both tied to Trump's effort to obstruct the investigation of his campaign's close ties to Russia intelligence.

You might say Trump was just being paranoid, but I believe there are national security implications to this story. The Justice Department did not find anything in their dragnet that we're aware of, but I don't think anyone can be too confident that anything they could have found would not have found its way to the likes of Rudy Giuliani or another Trump associate in transit to someone close to the Russian government.

In other words, if they had actually uncovered secret sources who spoke to investigators, those sources may have been killed.

Attorney General Merrick Garland has asked the department's inspector general to investigate these subpoenas.

If the Trump White House or the Republican party accuse the Democratic party or Democratic White House of doing something nefarious, you can all but guarantee that Republicans are guilty of doing whatever the accusation is.

The GOP long accused the Obama administration of spying on Trump and his campaign in 2016, but Trump's regime did exactly that in 2018.

(CNN) - Prosecutors in the Trump administration Justice Department subpoenaed Apple for data from the accounts of House Intelligence Committee Democrats -- including Chairman Adam Schiff -- along with their staff and family members as part of a leak investigation, an Intelligence Committee official and a source familiar with the matter confirmed to CNN. [...]

The gag order was renewed three times before it expired this year and Apple notified the customers. The House Intelligence Committee determined that along with members of the panel and staff, the dragnet collected the records of family members, including at least one minor, the person said.

Records seized included those from staff members who had nothing to do with issues related to Russia or former FBI Director James Comey, including Schiff's personal office staff, a House Intelligence Committee source told CNN.

Trump spied on someone's kid because he wanted to know who their sources on contact between Trump's campaign and Russian intelligence were.

The New York Times reports that the investigation was nearly shut down by former Attorney General Jeff Sessions because they couldn't find anything, but the investigation was revived by William Barr.

William P. Barr revived languishing leak investigations after he became attorney general a year later. He moved a trusted prosecutor from New Jersey with little relevant experience to the main Justice Department to work on the Schiff-related case and about a half-dozen others, according to three people with knowledge of his work who did not want to be identified discussing federal investigations.

I would say heads should roll, but they already did. That's what the 2020 election was for.

The new sanctions come in response to the SolarWinds hack and interference in the 2020 election, but the sanctions also come in response to Russia's invasion and annexation of Crimea and even interference in the 2016 election.

From the Associated Press:

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Biden administration on Thursday announced the expulsion of 10 Russian diplomats and sanctions against dozens of people and companies as it moved to hold the Kremlin accountable for interference in last year’s presidential election and the hacking of federal agencies.

The sanctions also target Moscow’s ability to borrow money by prohibiting U.S. financial institutions from buying Russian bonds directly from Russian institutions. [...]

The measures announced Thursday include sanctions on six Russian companies that support the country’s cyber activities, in addition to sanctions on 32 individuals and entities accused of attempting to interfere in last year’s presidential election, including by spreading disinformation. The U.S. also sanctioned eight people and entities tied to Russia’s occupation of Crimea.

The 10 diplomats being expelled include representatives of Russian intelligence services, the Biden administration said.

You may recall one particular scandal in which Trump's 2016 campaign manager, Paul Manafort, was accused of sharing the campaign's polling data with Russian businessman Konstantin Kilimnik

The new sanctions from the United States Treasury explicitly say Kilimnik shared Manafort's data and Trump's campaign strategy with Russian intelligence in 2016.

Konstantin Kilimnik (Kilimnik) is a Russian and Ukrainian political consultant and known Russian Intelligence Services agent implementing influence operations on their behalf. During the 2016 U.S. presidential election campaign, Kilimnik provided the Russian Intelligence Services with sensitive information on polling and campaign strategy. Additionally, Kilimnik sought to promote the narrative that Ukraine, not Russia, had interfered in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.

The response to Putin's most recent actions were expected, but the response to events from five years ago tells me the intelligence community knows more than the Trump regime allowed them to disclose. But I suppose that's no surprise, is it?

None of the sanctions announced today cover Russia's bounty program that offered rewards for killing foreign service members in Afghanistan, but a separate response to that program is reportedly coming according to multiple sources.

Trump never retaliated for Russia's record-breaking hack of the SolarWinds software platform, either, but the Biden administration is planning to respond to each of Putin's schemes all at once.

Sources who spoke to Bloomberg say the White House will expel more Russians from the country and sanction people close to Putin.

Possible moves could involve sanctions and the expulsion of Russian intelligence officers in the U.S. under diplomatic cover, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations. [...]

One person familiar with the deliberations said the U.S. response would likely comprise several elements. That would include sanctions singling out people close to Russian President Vladimir Putin as well as agencies linked to election interference.

In addition to sanctioning specific individuals, there could also be expulsions of diplomats as well as private talks with Russia laying out further actions the U.S. would be prepared to take. Those moves would be aimed at establishing effective deterrence against future cyber attacks such as the one that compromised popular software made by the Texas-based firm SolarWinds Corp. and infiltrated government agencies as well as private companies.

Administration officials are reportedly concerned about what implication their actions may have for talks to rejoin the Iran nuclear deal which Russia is also involved in, but it appears those concerns won't stop them.

We can only speculate what American officials may say during private talks, but I think it's long past time to put a tighter squeeze on Putin's regime especially now that he has signed legislation to keep himself in power for the rest of his life.

The Trump regime, elected Republicans, and conservative media have never forcefully responded to anything Putin has done in the last six years. Putin's action have benefited the GOP in most cases and they've demonstrated a complete willingness to sell out their own country for an electoral advantage. Whatever helps them 'own the libs' is acceptable.

If you want a government that actually takes national security seriously -- and I don't mean in the color-coded threat level sense -- you have to elect Democrats. It still feels to say that because I'm old enough to remember what the national security environment looked like during the Bush administration, but Republicans have not taken the matter seriously since at least the McCain campaign in 2008.

The total extent of what the Russian hackers were able to gleam from the record-breaking intrusion still isn't known, but the Associated Press reports that the hackers did gain access to one very high profile target.

Former Department of Homeland Security Chad Wolf had his email hacked.

Suspected Russian hackers gained access to email accounts belonging to the Trump administration’s head of the Department of Homeland Security and members of the department’s cybersecurity staff whose jobs included hunting threats from foreign countries, The Associated Press has learned.

The intelligence value of the hacking of then-acting Secretary Chad Wolf and his staff is not publicly known, but the symbolism is stark. [...]

Wolf and other top Homeland Security officials used new phones that had been wiped clean along with the popular encrypted messaging system Signal to communicate in the days after the hack, current and former officials said.

I suppose there's nothing funny about this, but I still couldn't help but laugh when I read that cybersecurity staff also had their accounts compromised. Who is watching the watchers?

I also couldn't help but think of the four-year-long campaign to flog former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's private email server. A private email server that was never compromised by Russian hackers. Emails exchanged by Clinton and her staff that were leaked to the public were stolen from State Department servers, not hers.

It's a really big deal that the director of Homeland Security was walking around with a compromised phone. The agency and its director has jurisdiction over most of our domestic security apparatus and access to classified information, among other things. Hacking the director of DHS is a more immediate threat to security than hacking the secretary of state would be.

The Biden administration is reportedly planning to retaliate for the SolarWinds hack, but it's not clear how yet.

With more to follow, the first round of sanctions are a response to Putin's attempted assassination of opposition leader Alexei Navalny.

“Russia’s attempt to kill Mr. Navalny follows an alarming pattern of chemical weapons use by Russia,” a senior Biden administration official told reporters on a call.

The officials said seven senior Russian government officials would face sanctions, such as asset freezes. In addition 14 entities associated with Russia’s biological and chemical agent production, including 13 commercial parties and a government research institute, were levied punitive measures.

The U.S. moves were being taken in coordination with the European Union.

This is a significant action, but it's also just the beginning.

Biden administration officials say this is only the first of several rounds of sanctions that will finally respond to actions taken while Trump was in office. Among other things, that includes Russia's massive hack that originated at SolarWinds and their bounty program that put a price on the heads of American service members in Afghanistan.

Trump either didn't acknowledge Russia's role or actively defended Putin's regime in most cases over the last four years. The Trump regime never officially acknowledged that Russia places bounties on American troops because that would require a response that Trump was never willing to give.

The Republican party used to present itself as the Party of The Troops, or whatever, but Trump used The Troops like political chess pieces. He deployed them to our southern border with Mexico for the optics. He deployed them to Saudi Arabia to protect a regime that tortured and murdered a Washington Post columnist. He ordered them to withdraw from Germany just because he hates German Chancellor Angela Merkel. He never responded to Russia's bounty program.

We have a long way to go to regain the moral leadership we lost under Trump, but this is a start.

With only a week remaining before the treaty expires, both sides agreed to extend the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) for another five years; the maximum extension allowed by current law.

From the New York Times:

The treaty limits nuclear arsenals to 1,550 strategic warheads. The five-year extension was built into the original text, if both countries agreed, so it does not need further approval by the Senate. But Mr. Putin will need to ratify the extension through the Duma, which he controls; it initially approved the treaty itself 10 years ago this week.

Mr. Putin and Mr. Biden “voiced their satisfaction” about diplomatic steps taken earlier in the day to exercise the extension, the Kremlin said.

You may recall that Trump refused to extend the treaty unless China became a signatory, but that was never about Chinese military superiority (which they don't have) and it does not appear that Trump was acting in Russia's interest even if he thought he was. Extending the treaty with a single phone call suggests that Putin did not consider it something worth arguing about.

Trump sought to expand rather than reduce our nuclear arsenal and extending the treaty wasn't in his own personal interests and personal fantasies. He also clearly viewed the treaty's renewal as another opportunity to make China a campaign boogeyman with no regard for the collateral damage.

Considering the origins of the START treaty, which was first signed by President George HW. Bush and Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev, it struck me that there's no Republican lawmaker alive today who could negotiate a treaty of much significant, let alone something like this. In the post-Trump era, the entire Republican bench of up-and-coming stars is a rogue's gallery of proudly stupid, belligerent nincompoops. Even their more presentable stars are utterly incapable of meeting any moment with truth and accuracy. They don't even know what truth is.

During their phone call, the White House says Biden also raised the issue of Russia's mistreatment of opposition figure Alexei Navalny and their cyberespionage campaign that originated at SolarWinds.

I expect the Biden administration will take significant actions in response to Russia's machinations over the last five years, but not until later this year after his national security team have had time to fully assess everything we know.

We're still learning new details about Russia's latest hack that began early this year and lasted through this month but, in both cases, Trump has run interference and misdirection for Russia by pointing fingers in other directions. In both cases, Trump has now contradicted his own appointees in the federal government including Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Trump also reportedly overruled his closest communications staff.

From CNN:

"This was a very significant effort, and I think it's the case that now we can say pretty clearly that it was the Russians that engaged in this activity," Pompeo had said of the cyber hack in an interview Friday on "The Mark Levin Show," adding: "I can't say much more as we're still unpacking precisely what it is, and I'm sure some of it will remain classified."

But Trump, in his first public comments on the issue, appeared to undercut Pompeo's remarks in a pair of tweets Saturday, suggesting without evidence "it may be China" that's responsible. Instead of condemning the attack, or Russia, he wrote that he had been "fully briefed and everything is well under control" -- despite officials in his administration having said this week that the cyberattack "poses a grave risk" to networks across both the public and private sector.

White House officials had drafted a statement assigning blame to Russia for the attack and were preparing to release it Friday afternoon but were told to stand down, according to people familiar with the plans. Officials initially weren't told why the statement was pulled back.

If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, I don't think we need to speculate to any great degree.

Trump was elected to office with the help of Russia. He's defending Putin's regime now for the same reason that he defended them in 2017. He wants to have good relations with Russian businessmen once he's out of office next month and that requires a good relationship with Putin. Russia's government and their economy operates like an organized crime family and that's something Trump has always understood and sought to emulate here in the United States. None of this feels like a big secret.

This is what it means to have a president who is both financially and morally compromised. It means having a president who is fundamentally opposed to defending his own citizens if doing so would interfere with his own personal priorities and relationships.

Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin confirmed today that the Treasury was also compromised and outgoing Attorney General William Barr also pointed a finger at Russia.

Speaking to CNBC, Steve Mnuchin acknowledged that the hackers had penetrated Treasury’s unclassified network but downplayed the severity of the intrusion.

“We do not see any break in into our classified systems,” he said. “Our unclassified systems did have some access. I will say that the good news is there has been no damage, nor have we seen any large amounts of information displaced.” [...]

Attorney General Bill Barr on Monday became the latest Trump loyalist to break with the outgoing president, telling a news conference that he agreed with Pompeo’s assessment that Russia was responsible: “It certainly appears to be the Russians but I am not going to discuss it beyond that.”

I do not feel confident in Mnuchin's assessment that no information was stolen.