In other news, the World Trade Organization (WTO) expects global trade will slow to its lowest level since the Great Recession this year. Estimates for 2020 have also been revised downward. I'm sensing a pattern here.
Meanwhile, Moody's Analytics is warning that a legitimate recession will likely decimate American retailers who have already been in recession while the rest of the economy is relatively healthy.
"Brick-and-mortar retailers are already in recession," said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Analytics. "They've been laying off workers coming up on three years. And this is a time when consumers are out spending aggressively. If the broader economy is in recession, there is going to be blood in the streets."
Finally, the economy added about 135,000 private-sector jobs in September according to the latest ADP survey, fewer than economists predicted. Numbers for August were also revised sharply downward.
The nation’s businesses added a modest 135,000 private-sector jobs in September, ADP said, in another sign that hiring is slowing along with the broader U.S. economy.
Economists polled by Econoday had forecast a gain of 152,000.
ADP also reduced its estimate of new jobs created in August to 157,000 from an original 195,000. [...]
The government’s report, which also includes government workers, comes out Friday. Economists polled by MarketWatch predict a 147,000 increase.
I know we've observed this trend before, but seriously -- every report is later revised downward under Trump. Things always end up being worse than they initially seem. If we actually see a recession next year, it will probably start before it shows up in economic reports.