Projected Deaths Rise With Reopenings

SK Ashby
Written by SK Ashby

Texas Governor Greg Abbott is the latest governor to announce that he will reopen the state's economy beginning this week even though they have no plan in place for testing or contact tracing and the number of deaths we can expect to see over the coming months is projected to rise as a result

The same model regularly cited by Trump's White House tell us at least 74,000 people will die by August, up from a previous projection of 67,000.

The outbreak could take more than 74,000 U.S. lives by August, compared with an earlier forecast of 67,000, according to the University of Washington’s predictive model, often cited by White House officials and state public health authorities.

The university’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) said late on Monday that the number of U.S. deaths caused by the virus was not abating as quickly as previously projected after hitting a daily peak on April 15 with about 2,700.

What these quick reopenings without testing really mean is it will take even longer for the virus to run its current course, extending the pace of deaths through the summer.

Trump held one of his daily briefings yesterday evening where he talked about about the plan for testing, but there is no plan. Trump's plan is to let states do all the work and, unfortunately, some states are doing little to nothing.

Given that we are likely to pass 57,000 deaths today, just 74,000 deaths by August may be a conservative estimate. Exiting home quarantine means a lot of people who weren't exposed to the virus before could be exposed in the coming weeks with no plans in place to trace contacts and take preventative measures. Business owners, workers, and customers will be flying blind and those who are at high risk of death if they're infected may have no idea if anywhere is safe.

My own state of Ohio will begin reopening in a limited capacity in about two weeks and while I would like to go sit at a bar with my father again, I cannot honestly say it will be safe to do that.

I'm no epidemiologist, of course, but some things we can infer just based on what we've seen so far abroad and here at home.