Economy

Study: Trumpcare Will Kill Almost 1 Million Jobs

JM Ashby
Written by JM Ashby

According to a study produced by researchers at George Washington University, Trumpcare 2.0 (3.0?) will kill nearly a million jobs over the next 10 years, a majority of which will be lost in the healthcare industry.

But that's only half the story and there's good reason to believe that could be a low-ball figure.

From there, the study said, the problems would spread. Lower employment means fewer people with disposable income to spend on other goods and services. The trickle-down effect would then result in a drag on overall economic output.

"It is likely that the business cycle will eventually slow down again," the report said. "In that event, the AHCA could accentuate job loss and economic contraction. Combined with major increases in the number of uninsured, this could contribute to a period of economic and medical hardship in the US. The AHCA could exaggerate both the highs and lows of the business cycle."

In other words, it would be a miracle if Trumpcare does not cause a recession. My gut says it wouldn't even take 10 years to get there. It seems to me depriving millions of people of affordable health care will have its own profound effect on the greater economy, and unless the Senate's Deathcare bill is significantly different from the House bill, we won't have to wait 10 years to see the consequences.

The CBO estimated that the House bill would results in millions of people losing coverage within the next year.

  • And of course the economy will crash just in time to blame the then Democratic President, low info voters will react by sweeping Republicans back into office, and we’ll be back to President Trump, version 2.0.

    We don’t learn. We’re doomed.

  • muselet

    I think it’ll take about ten years for the pile of manure that is the AHCA (or whatever the Rs decide to call it) to collapse the economy.

    The average citizen will dip deeper and deeper into savings to pay for increasingly useless insurance, then to pay for care. That cycle will take about five to eight years, I reckon.

    Then those average citizens won’t have anything left to spend on, well, anything. Since we live in a consumer society—despite the weird fever dreams of supply-side economists—companies will no longer have customers, and will shed jobs at a frantic rate, trying to cut their way to prosperity. They’ll manage to stay afloat for a couple of years before imploding.

    And, of course, since the Rs will have made it impossible for government at any level to do anything about anything, there will be no way to stop, or even slow, the plunge.

    All this, because the Rs think the wealthiest and highest-earners deserve big tax cuts.

    –alopecia

  • I just can’t wrap my head around the fact that so-called moderate Republicans are wringing their hands in public but refusing to vote against this crazy ass bill. They are literally willing to destroy the whole damn country in order to undo something the blah President did. It’s pure madness.

    • fry1laurie

      Rule No. 1-There are no moderate Republicans.

    • muselet

      Josh Marshall:

      [T]he Iron Law of Republican Politics is that the GOP moderates always cave.

      […]

      It is not only that the ‘GOP moderates always cave.’ It is that we are asked to (and almost always do) indulge this fainting couch routine or a furious bout of chin stroking that comes as a prelude to the cave.

      [links omitted]

      Marshall is picking on Shelley Moore Capito specifically, but the same can be said of every “moderate Republican” (and even a self-proclaimed Political Maverick).

      Or, what fry1laurie said.

      –alopecia