Study: Trump’s Mass Deportation Plan Could Cost $5 Trillion

JM Ashby
Written by JM Ashby

As I said yesterday, Trump's mass deportation plan could be his first self-inflicted economic wound, but what I had in mind apparently wasn't grand enough.

We could all be underestimating the economic fallout of Trump's plans if a study conducted by the National Bureau of Economic Research is correct.

According to the bureau, deporting all undocumented immigrants could cost $5 trillion over the next 10 years.

That represents the contribution of the millions of unauthorized workers to the world’s largest economy, about 3 percent of private-sector gross domestic product, according to a recent paper issued by the National Bureau of Economic Research. At an average of $500 billion in [economic] output a year, removing all such immigrants would be like lopping off the equivalent of Massachusetts from the U.S. economy, said study co-author Francesc Ortega.

To say that undocumented workers are present across the whole economy is to say that deporting 5 percent of the labor force would not occur in a vacuum. Even industries that do not employ a significant number of immigrants would be affected because a disruption of the agricultural and service industries would disrupt every other industry.

Some businesses do not employ a significant number of immigrants, but fewer people can afford to shop there if the price of their groceries skyrockets. I'm sure most people reading this can relate to that.

Moreover, Republicans like to say that immigrants are leeches living off the public dime, but the truth is they support the rest of the country through payroll taxes. The truth is old, white America needs immigrants to pay for their Medicare and provide cheap produce.

The potential cost of Trump's actions have to be put into context. The massive cost of this deportation policy would come in addition to the massive cost of Paul Ryan's tax cuts and the potential repeal of Obamacare. This is a recipe for a fiscal nightmare that would make the Bush administration look like deficit hawks.

  • Scopedog

    This is a recipe for a fiscal nightmare that would make the Bush administration look like deficit hawks.

    Yep. And of course, someone with the initials of HC was trying to warn us about the fiscal clusterfuck that would happen under a Trump administration (and will happen).

    Sadly, too may chose to go in this direction:

    But hey, as long as Susan Sarandon gets her revolution kickstarted early and Michael Moore gets to lead the Resistance, right?

    I need a drink.

  • Badgerite

    Will Mexico pay for that too? Just wondering.

  • mnpollio

    And where, oh where, are those dedicated deficit hawks Ryan and McConnell? Where, oh where, are all those commercials from conservative think tanks warning us that the most important things in the world are taking control of the national debt and deficits? It is truly amazing the magic trick that happens. When someone with a (D) behind their name holds office, we get an army of conservative chicken littles screaming how the ONLY thing that matters are debts and deficits. When someone with an (R) behind their name holds office, suddenly these things matter not at all. And it is definitely a fault of the media that no one points out their glaring discrepancy and screams it as loud as the deficit hawks scream their nonsense.

  • swift_4

    New headline: Republicans Vote To Lop Off Massachusetts.

  • muselet

    Donald Trump is yet another in a line of R presidents determined to collapse the economy.

    Quelle surprise.


  • Aynwrong

    These people have no idea what the bloody hell they voted for outside of the mindless horseshit that Rush Limbaugh & Fox News have been pouring into the their brains for the past several decades. Now all us normals have to live through the consequences while these idiots slowly figure how badly they f#¢ked themselves and their own nation and of course, as always, blame liberals.

    Damn them all.

    • Tony Lavely

      I fear that your last sentence should be read: and they’ll vote for the same thing again and again, because it isn’t their fault!

      • Aynwrong

        The Party of Personal Responsibility™ will have none for itself, thank you very much.

  • ninjaf

    How long before global warming makes Canada’s climate similar to the current US climate? *sigh*