Economy

Tax Cuts Versus Spending

In response to Lee's post below, no-one on the left is arguing against President Obama's campaign pledge for middle and lower income tax cuts. The real issue, however, is this: in a bill aimed at stimulating economic growth, spending is twice as effective at stimulating the economy as tax cuts. The nonpartisan CBO's multiplier chart:

cbo_multipliers.jpg

The most effective form of spending has a multiplier of 1.0 while the most effective tax cut has a multiplier of 0.5. You don't need to be an economist to see that 1.0 is twice as much as 0.5.

So when we learned that the Senate version of the recovery bill was festooned with less spending and additional tax cuts -- in total, 42 percent of the bill -- it was, suffice to say, rather alarming.

That means 42 percent of the bill is less stimulative than it could be. That means fewer jobs and less growth -- perhaps rendering the bill ineffective. That means greater potential for an all out Depression with all of its accompanying doom. That means the Republicans would surely retake Congress in 2010, and the Obama presidency would be dead in the water.

Middle and lower income tax cuts are fine and dandy. So bring 'em on. But I can't sit still while piles of additional tax cuts are shoehorned into the bill -- effectively sabotaging it. Make no mistake, Lee, that's the gripe from the left right now.