Senator Barack Obama

The Flake Rate

Sean Quinn:

What we're seeing on the ground with volunteering, especially with public polls showing double digit leads in Pennsylvania, is that the "flake rate" for volunteers is higher. "Flake rate" is the term for how the percentage of people who sign up to do a canvassing or phonebanking shift, and then don't show up. It tends to happen when a candidate's supporters get complacent. And it can happen in a hurry.

This worries me almost as much as the McCain-Nixon-McCarthy fear-mongering. What's making it all worse is that Congressman Gerlach (R-6th) is probably going to defeat Democratic challenger Bob Roggio. If 6th District Democrats think, 1) Obama's easily going to win, and 2) Roggio's easily going to be crushed, there's less motivation to volunteer and vote.

Yet another one of many reasons why I've banned the "L-word" from this blog until election night.

Adding... To be clear, I'm still squarely in this camp.

And also... If McCain somehow wins Pennsylvania, and Senator Obama wins the Kerry states plus Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado and Iowa, McCain still wins. 273-265. Just saying.