Trump's fake replacement for the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the so-called United States Mexico Canada Agreement or USMCA, does not make significant chances to the law and won't be noticeable to the vast majority of Americans, but one thing it does do is slightly raise content thresholds for vehicles produced in North America.
That may seem like a good thing -- producing more of the parts that go into cars and trucks here in North American rather than China, for example, is good, right?
You would think so, but the new language of the law does not raise the thresholds high enough for it to be worth moving production and, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), American automakers can expect to pay up to $3 billion in tariffs as a result while employment in assembly declines.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump’s rewrite of North American trade rules will cost automakers nearly $3 billion more in tariffs over the next decade for cars and parts that will not meet higher regional content requirements over the next decade, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates. [...]
In April, the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) found that USMCA would modestly boost the U.S. economy, especially auto parts production over current conditions, but may curb vehicle assembly and limit consumer choice in cars.
Auto industry employment would rise by 30,000 jobs for parts and engine production, but U.S. vehicle assembly would decline.
Notably, the United Auto Workers (UAW) union has refused to endorse the USMCA, saying that it's "highly unlikely to bring factories back from Mexico."
It appear that this change in law will be a wash at best. I mean, creating 30,000 jobs over ten years while assembly declines by an equal amount or more is like a mouse farting on cotton. No one is going to notice.
The $3 billion figure is a slightly different story as that will become a baseline part of buying a car or truck in America under Trump's permanent tariffs. This cost will be added to Trump's permanent tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum which have already cost automakers billions.
A significant percentage of the cost of buying a new car or truck in America can literally be attributed directly to Trump. And that's one reason why your local dealerships have so many new-model cars they can't get rid of.
Maybe the Democratic candidate for president should run on the explicit fact that they could immediately lower the cost of cars after taking office by ending Trump's trade war.